Betting 101: What is a moneyline bet in sports betting?

Why can one lock in odds for sports bets even if the spread or moneyline changes but your odds change as bets come in for ponies? Do people think this is unfair?

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[GoVolsXtra]: Sports betting for dummies: How to bet the spread, moneyline and over/under

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[Sports] - Super Bowl 2019: Odds, Vegas betting lines, moneyline and fun props for the NFL's thrilling climax | The Independent

[Sports] - Super Bowl 2019: Odds, Vegas betting lines, moneyline and fun props for the NFL's thrilling climax | The Independent submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Super Bowl 2019: Odds, Vegas betting lines, moneyline and fun props for the NFL's thrilling climax

[Sports] - Super Bowl 2019: Odds, Vegas betting lines, moneyline and fun props for the NFL's thrilling climax submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to INDEPENDENTauto [link] [comments]

Sport Betting for Beginners. How to Bet the Moneyline.

Sport Betting for Beginners. How to Bet the Moneyline. submitted by fansunite to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

PSA for degens in honor of the glorious return of sports: MLB RUNLINE VALUE

Can’t wait for sports[betting] to return!
Large caveat that this season is NOT going to operate like normal seasons, but I still present my humble, food for thought PSA:
If you like a favorite, always consider the runline. After all, the best team in baseball wins 3 of every 5 games, the worst team wins 2 of every 5 games. Even if you’re dangerously in love with the chalk, you aren’t betting the Pats over the Browns.
Over the last decade, only 28% of MLB games ended decided by one run. Last season, 56% of one run games were won by the closing line favorites. Ergo, only 15.68% of the 2019 slate ended in the chalk winning by a single run.
If you won 100 games putting $100 on a -120 line, you’d profit $8,333.
If you won only 84 of those games putting $100 on the RL at +150, you’d profit $11,200 even after the $1600 in losses.
Betting the favorite and losing is the same detriment regardless of su/spread bet.
Personally, albeit in a very small sample, I began testing this last year from August 1 on, ended with a 34-26 (56.7%) record and 41% ROI. Further, focus on away runlines. i went 19-18 with 31% ROI on the home team and 15-8 with a whopping 57.6% ROI on away teams. This has inspired me to keep the system into this year.
Again, all is going to be different this specific season. Note that divisional games are statistically more likely to be 1-run, and each team plays 67% of schedule against the division. The nature of each game being worth almost a full series sweep will certainly bring scores closer, and the pressure of a 60 game sprint will create more competitive environments across the board.
However, the 3-batter minimum and universal DH are both factors that reduce close game potential in my opinion.
Bet smart, but don’t be a square. The runline is not a sucker bet. Happy wagering, friends.
EDIT: sweet controversy! I love the swinging opinions, especially in sports betting.
A) Do NOT bet this in the case of poor odds. I’m talking specifically about when the moneyline is in the -110 to -150 range and therefore the runline would be +120 or better. DO NOT BET A RL AT -140. Honestly, any baseball game at -140 is questionable at best
B) THIS IS NOT A MODEL. As I bolded earlier, my message is to consider the runline. I’m just unearthing some stats for people to do what they wish with it. Threw this out here to get a feel on how people perceive the idea, not as an Oracle revealing secret knowledge
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When betting baseball, is it better to bet the Moneyline or the -1.5 spread

I want to get back to betting when sports returns. With Baseball though, do you think it's better to bet the moneyline though or the -1.5?
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Have you just been really unlucky, or does your betting strategy need some work? Methods to Estimate Prediction Error

Everyone has gotten unlucky on a seemingly sure bet that backfired. We hate losing that nail biter. It hurts a lot more than that blowout loss where you weren’t even close. The question is: should each loss (and alternatively each win) be treated equally?
Margin of Victory
If most of your wins are by a single point and you’re getting blown out in your losses, it might be a sign that your Win/Loss performance is due for a regression. Alternatively, if your only losses are of the nail biter variety, you might just be on the wrong side of variance. As an assessment, it might be helpful to measure your margin of victory on your wagers.
The margin of victory (“MOV”) measurement is a simple but useful measurement of how well your bets are performing. Since bets are generally binary outcomes (win or loss) there is a quite a bit of variance when it comes to measurement by simply wins and losses. Using the MOV measurement can give you a more precise measurement that isn’t as influenced by the binary nature of wager outcomes. This is identical to evaluating team performance using net differential as opposed to W-L.
MOV Example:
Say you placed the 15 NBA ATS bets below, winning 7 and losing 8 during the first week of March:

Date Wager Odds Win/Loss
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W
Wins 7
Losses 8
Win % 46.7%
A 46.7% winning percentage at -110 is certainly not a profitable record when betting the same amount every time. We could just assume that these weren’t very good bets. What we’d rather do, however, is examine our margin of victory for these games. The first wager of Kings -7.5, for example, was a game that the favorite failed to cover by 1.5 points, winning the game by 6 points when favorite bettors had to lay 7.5. Your wager (Kings -7.5) would have a MOV of -1.5 since your bet lost by 1.5 points.

Date Wager Pts Opp Pts Result Line W/L MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 106 100 -6 -7.5 L -1.5
We can do this same analysis for each wager and find that your MOV averaged 17.5 points in your wins and -3.1 in your losing wagers. Thus despite a losing record, your wagers had a total MOV of 6.5 points.

Date Wager Odds Win/Loss MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L -1.5
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W 12.5
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L -3
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L -0.5
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W 31
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L -7.5
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L -1
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W 13.5
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L -1
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L -4
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L -6.5
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W 17.5
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W 10.5
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W 9.5
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W 28
Wins 7 17.5
Losses 8 -3.1
Average MOV 6.5
This certainly indicates that variance was not on your side as you were on the losing side of several one-possession games and most of your wins occurred at pretty comfortable MOVs.
Now certainly there are limitations to an MOV analysis. First, since it is an “average” measurement, it can be influenced by outliers. You might consider capping the MOV (say a 10 or 15-point maximum MOV) to reduce the impact of outliers.
Second, different sports have different key numbers and a simple MOV analysis does not account for key numbers or non-normal distributions.
Lastly, this type of analysis doesn’t translate as easily for moneyline wagers. To make an apples to apples comparison, you would need to assess the average score differential at various moneylines. We computed the average run differential of away teams in the MLB based on the breakeven win probability of their moneyline odds in the graph linked below.
Normalizing Run Differentials Based on Implied Win Probability
More Granular Measurements
For sports that have lumpy scoring (NFL, NHL, MLB) you might perform a similar analysis using even more granular data than scoring. For example, to remove cluster luck from baseball scoring, you might do an analysis of net base production or in football you might analyze yards per play or play success rates.
Grading Your Own Predictions
Now let’s say you’ve made a model to come up with your own predictions for games (we’ll cover several ways to do this in our model building section) and you want to assess your predictions vs the market (or someone else). In statistics and machine learning, two common ways of assessing performance are by the mean absolute error (“MAE”) and the root mean squared error (“RMSE”) of various models.
Mean Absolute Error
The great thing about these terms is that their names so accurately describe their calculations. The mean absolute error is the average (mean) of the absolute value of your model’s prediction error. So if you forecasted a game to be -5 and the game ended in -3 the absolute value of the error of your model was 2 points. Do that for every prediction and take the average. Simple enough.
Root Mean Squared Error
The root mean squared error is conceptually very similar to MAE except that you first 1) square your error term, then 2) take the average (mean) of the squared error terms and finally 3) take the squared root of those squared errors.
We’ve calculated the MAE and RMSE for the NBA ATS wagers that you made linked below. Naturally, since those wagers had a positive average MOV, we’re not surprised that the prediction error was less than the market.
The difference between MAE and RMSE is that by squaring the error values, you are more heavily penalizing predictions with large errors. If large errors are significantly worse than smaller errors, then RMSE might be a better calculation for you to use. Otherwise MAE will work just fine.
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Leveraging Optionality: Applying financial theory in the sportsbetting markets

Option Pricing Theory
Stock options are equity derivatives that are frequently used for employee compensation or speculation within the finance realm. Anyone who spends more than 5 minutes on /wallstreetbets should know what I’m talking about. A typical plain vanilla call option provides the upside of capital appreciation with capped downside risk.
The upside potential provided by options frequently holds considerable value. Stock option are frequently valued using the Black-Scholes option pricing method, using variables such as the price of the underlying asset, the exercise price of the option, time to expiration, volatility and a risk-free interest rate.
For our purposes, we’re going to simplify things a bit by using a simple binomial option pricing model which determines option value by assuming the price of an asset can either increase or decrease by some estimated amount with some estimated probability.
Quick example: let’s assume Tesla is trading at $700 per share and they report earnings tomorrow. We assume that depending on how many cars they sold, the price will either be $800 or $600 tomorrow with 50/50 probability. If one of your friends said “Hey, I’ll sell you my share for $700. Just let me know tomorrow if you want it” what should your reply be?
My reply would be, “Sure I’ll let you know tomorrow.” And then I would wait to see how earnings went. If Elon sold a lot of cars (and the price increased to $800) I would go ahead and buy my friend’s share for $700. If earnings crap the bed, I would pass on my friend’s offer and not buy the share. Basically, you have no downside, only upside.
To value this option that our friend gave us, we would simply multiply the payoff in each scenario by the probability of each one occurring:

Scenario Option Value
A) $100 Increase Max($800-$700, 0) = $100
B) $100 Decrease Max($600-$700,0) = $0
Value of Option 50%*$100 + 50%*$0 = $50
In this hypothetical scenario, our friend gave us a free $50 worth of option value.[1]
Optionality in Sports Betting
A key advantage that sports bettors hold is deciding when to bet. We have covered this in a previous post, but it’s important to recognize that lines are dynamic and frequently vary across sportsbooks. Sometimes the lines differ considerably across books and sometimes they are very similar. In the former scenario, bettors can get tremendous value from shopping lines. In the latter, bettors might hold significant option value.
Let me demonstrate with an example.
This season, the New York Jets hosted the New England Patriots in a divisional clash on Monday Night Football. Let’s assume that your model suggests that there is value to betting the Jets on the moneyline (lol). You got your paycheck on Friday and you want to fire off your bet at one of your two sportsbook accounts that evening. Book 1 offers the Jets at +345 and Book 2 offers the Jets at +344. You should go ahead and place your bet at Book 1, right?
Not necessarily.
With odds that are nearly identical, your option value is worth more than the one penny in price difference (on a huge dog). If the line at either book moves up, you can get a better number. If the line at either book moves down, you bet at the book that didn’t move. This is option value. The value of that optionality depends on 1) if the books generally move in tandem, 2) the expected magnitude of the line movement and 3) the amount of time remaining until the game starts.
With the historical lines of each book, you can determine the average discrepancy between the lines to figure out what the likely magnitude of a future line move. In the table below, you can see that there was often a considerable difference between the lines offered at these two books.
Time Series of Odds between Two Books
From line release until 6pm ET on Friday night, there was an average difference of 10 cents between the books. Let’s assume that a 10-cent move is a reasonable estimate for the expected magnitude of the next line movement.
At this point, we don’t know if the next line movement will be in our favor or against us. Let’s assume that there is a 50% likelihood of the next line movement will be -10 cents and a 50% likelihood of the next line movement being +10 cents (on Book 2). [2]
Optionality Example
If the line at Book 2 moves down 10 cents, we bet Book 1 at +345. If the line at Book 2 moves up 10 cents, we bet at Book 2 at +354. By waiting for a line move, we can increase our expected odds from +345 to +349.5.
Value of Optionality
Now, we assume you are betting on the Jets ML because you believe there is an edge and that your expected win percentage exceeds the breakeven win percentage. As an example, let’s assume your expected win percentage is 24.0%. We can now determine your expected profit by 1) betting the odds at +345 or 2) waiting and getting expected odds of +349.5.
As calculated below, the expected profit for a $100 bettor increases from $6.80 to $7.88 by preserving your optionality and waiting to bet. As a result, the indicated value of the optionality is $1.08.
Option Value Calculation
Now – a common critique might be that “hey, we can’t predict the future and there is a chance that both lines move down simultaneously” or that “the lines were volatile early in the week but since reached efficiency”. Certainly, it’s possible that lines move in lockstep, but given the historical spread between the lines, I wouldn’t count on it.[3]
The argument that the lines have settled (and are thus less volatile) can be disproved by the line movement from 6pm ET on Friday until kickoff. If lines have settled, we would expect a negligible difference between the lines going forward. This, however, is not the case as the average difference between lines averaged 11 cents from 6pm ET Friday until kickoff, frequently exhibiting a 20-cent difference and peaking at a difference of 30 cents around midnight on Monday.
Time Series of Odds between Two Books Continued
So - what can we learn from this?
Big picture: if you have multiple sportsbooks with the same line, you’re generally better off waiting for one of the lines to move rather than pull the trigger. This especially holds true when there is a considerable amount of time before kickoff/first pitch/etc.
[1]We’ll ignore some of the technicalities of discounting that you would typically do with financial assets as the term (one day) is negligible and U.S. treasuries are yielding next to nothing.
[2] Doesn’t matter which book we assume will move next. The math is the same.
[3] Let’s also not forget that you’re contemplating placing a wager 72 hours before kickoff. If there are only 5 minutes to kickoff, that’s a different story(clearly not as much option value).
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Sports betting analogy to options trading

What would be the options equivalent strategy of the following example in sports betting:
Betting on a big moneyline favorite in any given sport...For example, the favorite has a very high chance of winning, but at a relatively low return rate. If a team is a -900 moneyline favorite, you have to risk 900 in order to win 100.
What would be the options strategy that is most similar to that? You might not make the biggest return, but you have a very high percentage chance of profiting on the trade.
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Building an app which makes it easier to bet on sports with friends

Hi everyone. I recently finished building my first mobile app which is a sports betting app and would love to get some feedback from the community. In short, it's called WagerLab and it's an easy way to send and keep track of bets with friends.

The reason I decided to build this is because I generally prefer betting against my friends rather than a bookie, but it's kind of a pain to settle on the odds and keep track of who owes who what. So on the app, I made it so you can look through all the upcoming lines, choose a bet along with a recipient and an amount, and then keep track of your results/balances in a separate section of the app. No money flows through the app (obviously for legal reasons) but you and your friend can agree to reset your current balance at any time.

Currently, I'm pulling spread odds on most major college and professional leagues as well as a bunch of entertainment props. My plan is to add totals, moneyline, and parlay betting (without juice) in the near future.

Here's a link to the app: WagerLab - Friendly Betting
Let me know what you think. I'd love to improve it more. Also if anyone is interested in beta testing something like that, hit me up.
submitted by stick321 to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Rocket League eSports

Since all major sports are suspended, I'm going to post my plays for the one 'sport' I'm good at - Rocket League. I have watched pretty much every game in every season of Rocket League that exists. I also play like crazy and have over 4000 hours in the game and am at the highest rank. There is a lot of value to be had in Rocket League in my opinion. There is no point spread that exists in betting on it from the USA yet, so you have to just do moneyline bets. If anyone wants to tail or watch some exciting games, you can do so at this link:
All games in league play of RLCS are best of 5 series. Games take 5 minutes to play and is played with 3 players on each team. I use both 5dimes and arcanebet to find the best line and bet on games I believe they have priced incorrectly.
Games for today start at 12pm PST.
Currently the picks I have locked in for this afternoon are:
Soniqs -180 ($180 to win $100) 5dimes
Knights -165 ($82.50 to win $50) 5dimes
Good luck and I hope someone finds as much enjoyment from this esport as I do during all this coronavirus stuff!
submitted by x3000gtx to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

How to Bet on Soccer?

1. Betting the Three-Way Moneyline

As the name entails, there are three options when betting the three-way moneyline:

  1. Team A wins
  2. Team B wins
  3. Team A and Team B draw
Three-way moneyline results are graded solely on 90 minutes of play, also known as “Regular Time.”
This includes any injury or stoppage time added by the referee’s discretion, but does not include overtimes or penalty shootouts.
For example, Argentina played Germany in the 2014 World Cup Final and the closing three-way moneyline was:
Argentina and Germany were tied, 0-0, after 90 minutes of regulation, meaning the Draw +230 cashed. Betting on Germany (+130) or Argentina (+255) lost, even though the Germans ended up winning in extra time.

2. Betting the Two-Way Moneyline

Another way of betting soccer is taking the two-way moneyline, which is offered in two simple ways: Double Chance and Draw No Bet. Both are graded solely on 90 minutes of regulation.
Double Chance means you’re betting on a specific team to win/draw, or either team to win. The three possible results are:
  1. Team A wins or draws
  2. Team B wins or draws
  3. Team A wins or Team B wins
Here’s an example:
For each bet, you’re essentially just eliminating one of the results.
Draw No Bet is a wager that eliminates the prospect of the draw completely, so the only two potential results are:
  1. Team A wins
  2. Team B wins
Since the draw is taken out of the equation, these odds are usually inflated on the favorite.
For example:
If the game ends in a draw in regulation, then all bets are refunded and considered “No Action”. This was the case in the 2014 World Cup Final since the game was tied after 90 minutes.

3. Betting Goal Lines (aka Spreads)

Similar to betting the Two-Way Moneyline, the Goal Line is a type of wager that eliminates at least one outcome. Goal Lines are similar to Puck Lines in hockey and Point Spreads in football or basketball.
A Goal Line is typically -0.5 goals in soccer, but for games with big favorites, the Goal Line may be higher like -1.5 or -2.5.
Goal Line odds for a World Cup match between Argentina and Iran look like this:
When dealing with goal lines or spreads, there’s always juice associated, just like an NFL spread or NBA spread.
If you bet on Argentina -2.5 goals, then to win the bet they must win by three goals or more. It you bet on Iran +2.5 goals, that means to win the bet Iran can win, draw or lose by one or two goals.

4. Betting Totals

Totals in soccer work much differently than they do in other sports and can be shown in multiples of .25 goals. Since scoring is minimal compared to other sports, bookmakers will often set a total of 2.25, 2.5 or 2.75.
For example, if you bet on the Over 2.25 goals, half your bet is placed on “Over 2” and the other half of your bet is placed on “Over 2.5”.
If the game ends, 1-1, then you lose your bet on Over 2.5, and are refunded your bet on Over 2 since it pushed. If the game ends with three goals or more, you would win both your bets.
Another example is if you bet on Under 2.75 goals. Half of your bet is placed on Under 2.5 goals and the other half of the bet is on Under 3 goals. If the game lands on three, you’d lose half your bet (Under 2.5) and refunded the other half (Under 3).
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How to Bet on Sports for Beginners

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs

When the oddsmakers release a betting line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog.
The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game and will get a minus sign next to its odds, while the underdog is expected to lose and gets a plus sign. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a “pick” or “pick’em.”

2. Spreads

There are two different ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread, which is a bet on the margin of victory. A favorite “gives” points, while an underdog “gets” points.
For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you “cover.” If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a “push,” which means you get back the money you originally bet.
If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
On the flip side, if you bet on the Jets “plus the points” (+7), you need the Jets to either win the game lose by six points or fewer for you to win (or cover) your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on football and basketball.

3. Moneylines

The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game. Favorites are given a “minus” designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you’re out $200. Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Underdogs are given a “plus” designation, such as +150, +200 or +500. If an underdog is +200, that means if you bet $100 on them and they win the game, you get $200. If they lose the game, you lose only the $100 that you risked. Because underdogs are expected to lose, there is more of a reward when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on baseball, hockey and soccer.

4. OveUnders (Totals)

In addition to setting a line for the favorite and the underdog, oddsmakers will also set a total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined. This is called the “total” or the “oveunder.”
Bettors can then wager on whether or not the game will go Over or Under the total.
For example, an NBA game between the Celtics and Bulls might have a total of 215. You could either bet the Over 215 or the Under 215. If you bet the Over 215 and the total points scored end up being 216 or higher, you win your bet. If the total points scored are 214 or fewer, you lose.

5. What is the -110 number listed next to my bet?

The oddsmakers put a “tax” on every bet, which is typically called the “juice,” “takeout” or “vig” (short for “vigorish”). The juice is the commission you have to pay to the sportsbook for them to accept your wager.
Say the Duke Blue Devils are -5 (-110) … that means if you want to bet on Duke as a 5-point favorite, you need to risk $110 to win $100.
The juice can also be a positive number, such as Penn State -7 (+110). That means if you bet $100 on Penn State as a 7-point favorite and it covers, you win $110. If it loses, you lose only the $100 that you risked.

6. How to Place a Bet

With legalized sports betting spreading across America, sports bettors have never had more options to take advantage of. To see if sports betting is legal where you live, check out our state-by-state tracker.
Some of the biggest states that have legalized mobile wagering include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and West Virginia. The sportsbooks highlighted below are all trustworthy legal shops that take mobile bets.

7. Rotation Numbers

Rotation numbers are what’s listed to the left of a team on the board. They are also referred to as the NSS number or Vegas ID number. They are unique to the team, sport and league, and universal across most sportsbooks.
For example, you might see the number “312” listed next to the Bruins -120. If you’re at a casino and want to bet $100 on the Bruins, walk up to the window with your money and say, “$100 on 312, Bruins -120.”

8. Lines Move in Real Time

Much like stocks on Wall Street, the sports betting market is fluid. Throughout the day, bookmakers will adjust the odds depending on the action they’re taking and other news, such as injuries and weather. For example, if the Vikings open as 7-point favorites and the vast majority of bets are on the Vikings, you might see the Vikings’ line move from -7 to -7.5. The line could move even further to -8, or it could be “bought back” to -7.
You can monitor betting data for every game in real time on our live odds page or in our mobile app (download here).

9. Shop for the Best Line

Lines can vary based on the sportsbook, because different books have different clienteles. As a result, one book may post the Cavs -8 while another has -7.5. Having access to more than one sportsbook allows you to shop for the best line. Getting an extra half-point might not seem like a huge deal, but it adds up over the long haul and increases your chances of winning.
Our live odds pages will automatically surface the best line for every game.
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Sports Betting 101: Do’s and Don’ts of Sports Betting

Do Go Line Shopping

When you buy food, clothes, or any other item, it makes sense to look for the best price. All else being equal, it’s efficient to want the best possible good for the lowest possible cost. This concept maps perfectly onto sports betting, where all else is always equal. A bet on the New York Yankees is a bet on the Yankees regardless of what sportsbook you place it at, so finding the best price is a singular variable that should be weighed on its own.
Ideally you’d have access to multiple betting outlets and simply bet your game wherever you could find the best price, but at the very least this concept of “line shopping” is a good way to get an indication of value. The convenience of having multiple options for where to place a wager is one reason why Las Vegas is considered by many to be a sports bettor’s paradise. As more and more states and regions come onboard with legalized sports betting, that landscape is set to change, though. Just look at places like New Jersey that now offer multiple outlets for bettors to place wagers at.
If you can bet the Yankees at -150, but at other sportsbooks you’d have to lay -175 or -200, then generally speaking, you’ve stumbled upon a bargain. It can be annoying and time consuming to cross-reference every one of your bets, but fortunately the resources become more and more available as sports betting grows.

Don’t Bet Large Moneyline Favorites

The further away you get from a 50/50 bet, the harder it is to get a fair price. Most sportsbooks price 50/50 propositions at -110 on both sides, but when you’re dealing with lopsided odds, the house cut widens.
If a huge favorite is -3000 to win, you won’t see the underdog remotely close to that number. So if the favorite is -3000 and the underdog is +1500, which is fairly typical or thereabouts, then there’s a good chance the fair number is somewhere in the 2000s, This means that neither side is likely to be worth betting on. Many bettors will mask this problem by parlaying large favorites together so that they can stomach a more manageable payout, but it doesn’t change the fact that the component parts of the bet are inherently bad values.
Making a bet just because you feel like it “can’t lose” is the wrong philosophy, and it’s exacerbated when you delude yourself by combining multiple bets of this nature into one wager. This can become even more problematic when you’re not being offered fair parlay odds. Some sportsbooks do offer fair parlay calculations, but betting on a lot of large money line favorites is still virtually certain to lose you money in the long run.

Do Target Correlated Parlays

Long explanation incoming…
Most people familiar with sports betting will tell you that a parlay is always a bad idea, but it’s not even remotely that simple.
A parlay is essentially a neutral proposition in general, where you are making one bet, and then automatically betting all of the possible winnings on a second, or more bets. There’s nothing particularly useful about doing this, but there’s nothing particularly problematic about doing it either. Having said that, there are some parlays that are absolutely worth considering. Some sportsbooks will let you bet parlays when the bets are actually correlated.
The idea behind a correlated parlay is that the outcome of one bet can influence the result of a second bet, so the combination of two bets can give you a different likelihood of winning than two unrelated bets. For instance, if you bet a parlay on two coin flips, you have a 25% chance to win (.5 x .5 = .25) because those two 50/50 flips are totally independent. But if you bet a parlay on, let’s say, the under and the home team in a baseball game, you actually have more than a 25% chance to win because home wins lead to less runs on average, primarily because the home team doesn’t bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning.
Diving deeper into baseball parlays, there are a few things to keep in mind that can give you an advantage. As mentioned above, the existence of an 18th frame (bottom of the 9th) is a chance for more runs to be scored. That alone creates an interrelationship between home victories and reduced run scoring, as well as away victories and increased run scoring, but there’s more to it as well. The rules of baseball also dictate that the game is over once the home team takes the lead in the 9th inning or later, so it’s more difficult for a home team to win by multiple runs than it is for an away team. Yes, multi-run home runs can happen in the 9th inning or later, but this is the only way a home team can win by more than one beyond the 9th. On the other hand, the away team has unlimited run potential in the 9th and extra innings, so there’s increased chance for a total bet to hit the over if the away team does the scoring.

Don’t Chase with Live Bets

Live betting odds are computed with pretty complex algorithms, and just like with large money line betting options, the fair bet is generally somewhere close to the middle.
The bottom line is that both sides of a live bet, in most cases, present less-than-ideal value, due to the increased juice, or higher house cut. Chasing your losses or chasing a pregame wager through live betting can be viewed as a way to get of what you think is a lost cause, but in the long run it’s going to hurt you.
Although, like betting on game props discussed below, it is possible to find some gems when scrolling through live betting odds. For the most part, it’s important to exercise restraint and look elsewhere for better value.

Do Bet Player Props

Player props generally come with increased vigs (-115 or -120 compared to the standard -110), but there is still plenty of opportunity to cash in on them. The most effective way to bet a player prop is simply to rely on a trusted projection system that can spot differences in the betting line and the expected result for a player’s statistics, but the best player prop values usually occur due to injuries.
Wagers are voided if the player of record is scratched from a game, but injuries to surrounding players, usually teammates, can open up some substantial advantages. In basketball, for instance, it’s generally a good idea to bet the over on props for James Harden and Chris Paul when one of the two is ruled out of a game, and same goes for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, or other combinations of this nature.
You can also bet under props when news breaks about a minutes restriction in basketball, a snap count in football, a pitch limit in baseball, and so on. The main idea is to use your ability to quickly react to news, as player prop lines tend to respond to news more slowly than standard game betting lines.

Don’t Bet Game Props (Usually)

Game props can be viable, but there’s a slew of game props that people bet mostly for fun without realizing how negative the value is that they’re getting. Bets like “team to win first half and full game” or “player to score first basket” or “yes/no game goes to extra innings” just about never come with a fair payout and could ultimately be a disaster for your bankroll.
Sportsbooks know that people usually make these types of bets on a whim. These bets are more for casual bettors who want a more exotic taste of action, but if it’s a bet that a sharp player likes, he or she has likely already gotten in when the price was good. While it’s not absolutely impossible to find a diamond in the rough with these bets, you’re almost certainly better off looking elsewhere.
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Closing Line Value Pt 1

Alright gang – today I’m going to talk about Closing Line Value (CLV): 1) what it is, 2) how to measure it, 3) why it’s useful and 4) ultimately why it’s flawed. This seems to be a polarizing topic so I’m expecting some disagreement and backlash.
I’ll cover 1) and 2) in today’s post and 3) and 4) tomorrow in Part II.
Closing Line Value
For those of you who are new to sports betting, the “Closing Line” is the line/odds of a game when the market for a game closes (i.e. just prior to kickoff/first pitch/tip off, etc.). Closing Line Value (CLV) is simply a comparison between 1) the line/odds that your bet was placed at and 2) the Closing Line.
The theory behind CLV is that if you’re getting a line better than what is offered at the close of the market, that’s generally a good thing. Simple example: you bet the Yankees at -125 and they closed at -150. You got positive CLV. Congrats!
Measuring CLV
Unfortunately, there is no standard approach to measuring CLV.
The Casual Approach: Casually, folks would say you got “25 cents” of CLV. Clearly this is a good thing, as a $100 bet at -125 would win $80, while a $100 bet at -150 would only win $67.
The Win Probability Approach: To get slightly more technical, we can compare the breakeven win probability of your bet at -125 vs the closing line of -150. The breakeven win probability of -150 is 60.0% while the breakeven win probability of -125 is 55.6%. The difference of 4.4% in breakeven win probability is another way to quote your CLV.
The Expected Value Approach: A third approach is to measure CLV based on the expected value of the bet. If you made a bet at a breakeven probability of 55.6% and the closing breakeven probability is 60.0%, you could say that “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 60.0% (increase of 4.4%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 4.4% / 55.6% = 8.0%.
Removing Vig
Some people prefer to review their CLV absent the book’s vig. To make this adjustment, we simply remove the half of the vig for that bet (we assume half the vig is charged on both sides of the bet).
Assuming a standard 10-cent baseball line (+140/-150) we would have a closing vig of 1.6%. Our no-vig CLV measurements would be as follows:
The Casual Approach: With a closing line of +140/-150, we estimate that the “fair” price of the favorite is -145. Thus, a comparison of your bet at -125 and the fair price of -145 would only yield “20 cents” of CLV.
The Win Probability Approach: Subtracting half the vig from our breakeven win probability yields a no-vig CLV of 3.6% (4.4% - 0.8%).
The Expected Value Approach: The closing breakeven probability of -145 is 59.2% so the “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 59.2% (increase of 3.6%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 3.6% / 55.6% = 6.5%.
While you’re free to measure CLV however you feel like it, theoretically the no-vig expected value approach should best estimate your long-term return based on CLV.
CLV for Point Spread and Totals
To measure CLV for points spreads or totals using the Win Probability Approach or the Expected Value Approach, you need to estimate the push probabilities of the numbers that were crossed (i.e. if you bet -2.5/-110 and the market closed at -3.5/-110, you crossed the 3). You can then compare your bet with the implied “fair” moneyline of your bet based on the closing line. Referencing our NCAAB half point price of 9 cents on the 3, we estimate -2.5/-128 to be the equivalent of -3.5/-110. You can then calculate your CLV just as you had before.
Tomorrow's discussion: how CLV can be useful, but is ultimately a flawed metric
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Closing Line Value Pt 2

TL;DR: CLV can be a useful alternative measurement for performance, but is ultimately a flawed metric
Purpose of CLV
The primary purpose of CLV is an alternative measurement of performance. The theory is that if you’re getting enough CLV to cover the vig, you should be a winner in the long term. Many “pros” claim that it's best to benchmark performance based on CLV rather than actual outcomes. Sportsbooks can also use it as a measurement to assess whether a sports bettor is a “sharp” or a “square”, sometimes limiting or even outright banning bettors who consistently beat CLV. This assertion relies heavily on the efficient market hypothesis.
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Without giving you a financial theory history lesson, very simply the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that the price of an asset reflects all known information and that consistent alpha generation is impossible. Sports betting translation: the only way to bet profitably is to generate CLV and it’s impossible to generate +EV if you only bet right before the game starts. If you bet the Closing Line you should expect to lose an amount equal to the vig in the long-term.
Quite simply – this is bullshit.
Various forms of EMH may apply to liquid financial markets, but I’m going to make the argument that while CLV is useful, the Closing Line is far from efficient.
Is the Market Efficient?
Market efficiency is often characterized as having the following attributes:
1. Immediate absorption of new information
2. Important information is freely available to all participants
3. A large number of rational, profit maximizing market participants
Let’s review these assertions one-by-one.
1. Immediate Absorption of New Information
In an efficient market, the only thing that moves the price of an asset is new information. If this were true, we should be able to identify long periods of static lines, as no new information has been revealed.
Let’s check out a recent example of how reactive the markets are to new information:
On January 11, 2020 the OKC Thunder hosted the LA Lakers. Around 1:30pm ET, news broke that LeBron would miss the game. Naturally, that injury announcement had a large impact on the odds for both teams. A time series plot of the Thunder’s breakeven win probability is shown below.
Time Series of an OKC LAL game win probability
The lines almost immediately improved the Thunder’s breakeven win % from ~50% to ~65%. Without giving a chance for the lines to reach a new equilibrium, another bombshell was dropped at 1:54pm ET: Anthony Davis was questionable. The lines continued to move in the Thunder’s direction for the next hour or so before seemingly reaching an equilibrium a little after 3pm ET.
When it was finally announced that AD was downgraded to Out around 45 minutes before tip, the line began to further trend toward OKC.
So how should we judge these movements? Did the market immediately factor in new information?
Although the market reacted fairly well, there was still some opportunity to get a bet in before the market reached a new equilibrium, particularly with regard to the AD news. I would say that the market may not have fully reacted immediately, but this isn’t enough evidence to disprove the EMH.
We are 0 for 1.
2. Important Information is Freely Available to All Participants
Does everyone have access to the same information? Certainly not everyone would agree with me, but I generally believe that most sports information is freely available these days. The barrier to information is lower than it’s ever been. People use information in different ways, to give them certain edges, but I don’t think that information asymmetry is a reason to disprove EMH.
We are now 0 for 2...
3. A Large Number of Rational, Profit Maximizing Market Participants
I think we can all agree that the drunk guy parlaying the Gatorade color and coin flip at the Super Bowl might not be rational or profit maximizing.
And judging by a few Reddit comments there are plenty of sports bettors who aren’t strictly profit maximizers (please if this is any of you, please don't feel personally attacked):
“I'm not going to be dealing with 7 different bookies just to raise my ROI by .1 or .5 or even 1%.”
“I tend to gamble more when I’m bored”
“I was drunk and wanted to bet so I threw down 5 units on an Australian women's basketball game on a blind tip from the Nitrogen chat room.”
The vast majority of sports bettors aren’t profit maximizers, but utility maximizers. Sports betting offers a form of exhilaration and entertainment that can’t be found in other places. A lot of that excitement manifests itself in poor-EV-yet-thrilling wagers (such as parlays, teasers and futures) that sportsbooks happily offer you.
Just how much are non-profit maximizing behaviors costing sports bettors? To answer that, let’s take a peak at the Nevada’s annual sports betting report. In 2019, sportsbooks in Nevada took $5.3 billion in wagers and held $329 million, representing a hold of 6.2%. Previously we discussed how standard -110 odds gave sportsbooks a hold of 4.5%, which we could chisel away at pretty easily with some basic line shopping. Thus, if market participants we’re truly profit maximizers, we’d expect a hold significantly less than 6.2%.
OK – so finally we have some evidence that the EMH might not hold. Let’s see if we can test it with some data.
Testing Weak Form Efficiency
The three forms of market efficiency are Strong Form, Semi-Strong Form, and Weak Form. The Strong Form assumes that all information (private and public) is baked into the market. The Semi-Strong Form assumes that all public information is baked into the market price of an asset. The Weak Form states that historical prices cannot be used to predict future prices.
If we can prove that the weakest form of the EMH can be disproved, we can disregard the EMH.
Straight from Morningstar:
“The weak form of EMH assumes that current stock prices fully reflect all currently available security market information. It contends that past price and volume data have no relationship with the future direction of security prices. It concludes that excess returns cannot be achieved using technical analysis.”
MLB Moneyline Movements
Let’s go ahead and use MLB ML data from the 2015-2018 seasons to see if we can predict the direction of the closing line, and therefore generate theoretical value (CLV) by beating the closing line.
We gathered the Closing Line as well as the line 2-hours to close[1] (T-2) to see if we can recognize any patterns. We can then test the statistical significance of those patterns to give us a sense of whether they have any merit.
The traditional school of thought is that if you’re betting favorites, it’s best to bet them early. If a dog, wait until close to gametime. Does this hold merit?
The first thing we can do is test the average deviation of prices from a 50/50 probability. Closing Lines had an average deviation of 44 cents, while T-2 had an average deviation of 42 cents over 9,813 games in our sample. If we look at the distribution, we see that there are more games with an average deviation greater of 100 or more at close than at T-2.
Average Deviation
Yes, the curves look similar. But if we focus on the difference between the two, we can identify a more significant pattern.
Difference Between Close and T-2
What the above shows is that there are more “close” games at T-2 and more “mismatches” at Close. Huh? How can that be?
Answer: lines must move toward the favorite from T-2 to Close.
Let’s dive a little further and focus on games that have a significant favorite.
We pulled out games that have an underdog of +180 or greater at T-2. In total we had 1,208 games. Of those 1,208 games, 657 (54%) had line movement toward the favorite, 404 (33%) had line movement toward the underdog, and 147(12%) did not have any movement. The average movement of the favorite was -3.4 cents, from -224.0 to -227.2.
Visually, we can look at the distributions of movement below.
Line Movement Distribution
Clearly, the data suggests a movement toward the favorites in the last two hours, suggesting that we can capture positive CLV simply by betting favorites 2 hours prior to first pitch. This “strategy” violates weak form EMH, which states that past prices have no relationship with future price movements.
If this isn’t enough evidence to disregard the EMH, I pose you this: are the MLB markets systemically mispricing favorites two hours prior to first pitch, only to correct this mispricing from T-2 to Close?
I find it hard to believe.
Optimizing for CLV vs Optimizing for Profit
The evidence above provided a theoretically argument why the EHM can be largely disregarded and therefore CLV should not be the target that bettors are optimizing for.
A more practical reason why CLV should not be the target: because CLV is fairly simple to measure, it is the primary way that sportsbooks designate who is sharp and who is square. With so many sportsbooks practicing the strategy of limiting or banning sharp bettors, it’s probably not ideal to optimize for a strategy that 1) rests heavily on the assumption of an efficient market and 2) firmly puts you on the radar of sportsbooks.
[1] This is the line available two-hours prior to first pitch.
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Sports Betting Online - The Things You Must Keep In Mind When Playing

If you're just How to calculate a parlay?, there are several things that you simply must essentially confine mind. Your knowledge will function your tool in ensuring that some time , effort and money spent thereon are going to be productive.
Implement Good Money Management
It applies not just in sports betting, but in all pastimes you perform that involves wagering money. Money management will help in guarding your bankroll and in keeping you away from bankruptcy. Betting all your money is never a smart decision and it will also not help you in being a successful long term player. Spend only what is okay for you to lose in case it is not your lucky day to play.
Look And Shop Around
Odds offered in online sports betting differ from one sports book to another. Therefore, shopping around will be very helpful in finding which one offers the best odds and the best deals.
Pay Attention To Underdogs
Not because a player or a team is the crowd's favorite, it already means that it will always win the game. Underdogs, too, can have the edge over the favorites depending on how the game is played. Do not underestimate the capability of underdogs.
Know The Bets You Can Make
There are many sorts of bets which will be made when wagering money in online sports betting. Knowing what bets you'll make is additionally another important knowledge that you simply got to obtain. Below are a number of the bets utilized in sports betting.
Single or Straight Bet is the most common and the simplest bet that you can make. This means that you will bet on who will win at a particular game.
Point Spread allows betting on the winner from selections made equal through appropriate allocations to the losing team. Essentially, you will wager on certain points by which the winning team will defeat the underdog.
The Moneyline sets up the probabilities for every team; yet is inversely related to what could have been the point spread.
Total Bet refers to the sum of the points earned by the two teams, inclusive of the scores they earned during overtimes.
Over or Under bet also involves the sum of the scores made by the two teams. However, in wagering, you'll back whether the sum is over or under the entire amount indicated by the chances maker.
Accumulator Or Parlay is a multiple bet. You can make numerous selections at a time on quite two games with the intention of pressing the winnings of the primary to the succeeding wins. To win the parlay, you need to win each selection. For tie, cancelled or postponed games, the parlay will be automatically lowered by just one selection. The double parlay can turn into a straight kind of bet; the triple parlay can become a double. If you win a parlay; it can definitely yield enormous money.
The teaser bet is similar to a parlay; except that you have an alternative to add/subtract points from one or several spread bets.
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Divisional Weekend Matchup Guide (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2

Part 2 Right Here:


DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from
What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. We will give estimated valuations of players, as well as game flow projections and possible implications of injuries or trends on those involved. Best of luck to all!

DFAroto Playoff Record for Predictions

Moneyline: 2/4
ATS: 3/4

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Vikings ATS: 10-7-0 49ers ATS: 9-6-1
Projected Point Totals: Vikings 18.75 49ers 25.75


Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #11
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (P) DE Kentavius Street (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): WR Adam Thielen (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Stefon Diggs (23%) Adam Thielen (12%) Dalvin Cook (10%) Kyle Rudolph (10%) Irv Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Dalvin Cook (78%, 31, 5) Alexander Mattison (18%, 6, 2) Ameer Abdullah (4%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
How you like me now?! Kirk Cousins (downgrade) got the first big win of his career last week in a shocking upset of the Saints in The Big Easy. On tap is another beastly defense; San Francisco ranks second in Pass DVOA, while also producing the 11th best Run DVOA. Needless to say, it projects as tough sledding for the entire Vikings offense. Mike Zimmer’s game plan will flow through the run game again, capping Cousins upside in the box score. He again projects as a fade for DFS, especially considering the other signal callers available on the slate. The matchup isn’t a good one - SF cedes just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs and just 19.1 to opposing WRs - Plus, the 49ers defense will be bolstered by the return of LB Kwon Alexander and SS Jaquiski Tart. DT Dee Ford was also expected to return, but his status is now a bit murkier as we head into the weekend. All of this is to say, it’s probably best to go a different route at QB.
Stefon Diggs (slight downgrade) busted last week, but if you read our Wild Card article it was to be expected. San Francisco has been second best in the NFL for limiting explosive pass plays (20+ yards), giving them up on just 6% of plays (sharpfootballstats). Considering Diggs role in the Vikings offense as the main downfield threat, he again faces an uphill battle to DFS success. If not for the midweek injury to fellow wideout Adam Theilen (Q), Diggs would be receiving a full downgrade. If Theilen is in anyway limited, however, Diggs could see a volume upgrade that would keep him active in the WR2 conversation. Plus, he’s always just one deep ball away from hitting value. Either way, Diggs is no more than a contrarian play in a tough matchup - according to PFF his matchup disadvantage is set at -5%, he’s expected to see primary coverage from Ahkello Witherspoon (PFF’s No. 72 CB). While that matchup isn’t exactly imposing, considering the 49ers also field the No. 1 ranked CB (Richard Sherman), and the No. 9 (K’Waun Williams); it’s going to be tough for Diggs. The midweek injury to Theilen renders him no more than a dart throw due to volume and playing time concerns. Proceed at your own risk, but again he’s the preferred play to Diggs if active and not limited. Kyle Rudolph hauled in the game winner last week, but outside of that barely managed to produce. He and Irv Smith are no more than touchdown dependent tight end options. The edge again goes to Rudolph due to his nose for the endzone.
RB Breakdown
Dalvin Cook (volume upgrade) handled an amazing 31 touches in the Wild Card Round, parlaying them into 94 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, also adding a 3-36-0 receiving line. San Francisco has been a bit weaker against the run than the pass, so Cook can again be considered a volume based RB1 with a great chance at finding the endzone. His monster volume should alleviate any concerns of the tough matchup - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RBs, giving up an average of 112.6 yards per game on the ground - still, Cook can’t be counted out, and may be under-owned due to the expected negative game-script. Remember, this offense flows through Cook.


Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA (Regular Season): #7
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA (Regular Season): #9
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (D) CB Mackensie Alexander (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): G Mike Person (P)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): George Kittle (31%) Emmanuel Sanders (19%) Deebo Samuel (18%) Kendrick Bourne (9%) Raheem Mostert (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Raheem Mostert (54%, 11, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 6, 2) Matt Breida (16%, 4, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers head into Saturday as 7 point home favorites. This is in large part due to their success on defense in 2019, but also because Jimmy Garoppolo (slight downgrade) has proven to be a massive success. The guy is sporting a perfect QBR when throwing the ball 20+ yards between the numbers (Next Gen Stats), plus, he’s been pretty damn good throwing to every other place on the field as well. The Vikings have been very good against imposing signal callers - limiting QBs to just 14.2 FPPG and WRs to 22.4 FPPG - plus, they held Drew Brees to just 208 yards passing in the Wild Card Round. Another thing to consider, Jimmy G is making his first career playoff start, and historical trends show us that quarterbacks generally struggle. Since 2010, teams are 9-17 when starting a first-time quarterback in the playoffs ( Still, it feels different with Jimmy G. However, considering that the Vikings were able to get pressure against the Saints, who have a better ranked offensive line according to PFF than the 49ers, and that San Francisco is a run first team, Jimmy G should likely be faded this weekend.
Deebo Samuel (slight upgrade) and Emmanuel Sanders are the only wideouts in this offense with over 10% of the target share, making them the only ones worth considering. Sanders has taken on the role as field stretcher with an aDOT of 12.6 yards, while Samuel has thrived as an underneath play maker with an aDOT of 6.5 yards, while also churning out 201 YAC this year. The Vikings corners are a bit banged up, plus were never an imposing matchup anyway - Trae Waynes (PFF’s No. 27 CB), Mike Hughes (PFF’s No. 101 CB), and Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 141 CB) have all been exploitable, while Mackensie Alexander (PFF’s No. 59) has been announced as out for this weekend. Samuel has the second best matchup advantage for the weekend according to PFF, behind only Tyreek Hill. He’s sitting at a 20% advantage, while Sanders isn’t far behind at 18%. One thing to consider is the explosive pass rate (20+ yards) given up by the Vikings. They only yield them on 7% of plays (, making Samuel the preferred play as the underneath option. George Kittle (upgrade) has been an absolute stud in 2019, not only is he the No. 1 ranked tight end by PFF, he’s also the highest ranked player in the NFL by PFF. He’s a freaking monster. Still, the Vikings have been very good against opposing tight ends - ceding just 4.8 FPPG to the position, second best. Either way, I’m not willing to bet against Kittle, and considering the other tight ends on the Saturday slate, he should likely be locked into most lineups. The only other to be considered is Mark Andrews (see below), who draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Titans.
RB Breakdown
The 49ers backfield has been a bit of a mess to predict all year, but has shaped up in favor of Raheem Mostert in recent weeks. The emergence of Mostert has relegated Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida to complementary roles, with neither offering much in the way of fantasy value. Minnesota has been average against enemy backs - surrendering 16.5 FPPG to the position - but they have allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests. The Vikings defense played above their season average in terms of rushing yards allowed against the Saints, only giving up 97 yards, but New Orleans only ran the ball a meager 17 times. Mostert is in a good spot to produce considering the expected positive game-script at home, but the concern in a Kyle Shanahan offense is the hot hand approach used by the coaching staff. If Mostert doesn’t get it going early, he could see his touches dwindle in favor of a producing back. Still, he’s the cheapest starting RB on the Saturday slate, and offers the same touchdown upside as the other options. Proceed at your own risk, but Mostert could be a fixture in lineups finishing in the money.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 21

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Titans ATS: 9-7-1 Ravens ATS: 10-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Titans 18.5 Ravens 28


Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (BAL) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): WR Adam Humphries (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): AJ Brown (26%) Corey Davis (16%) Tajae Sharpe (12%) Adam Humphries (12%) Jonnu Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Derrick Henry (81%, 35, 1) Dion Lewis (18%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Titans passing offense predictably found little success against the shutdown secondary of New England last week, but thanks to strong work in other facets of the game, they are on to the second round. Ryan Tannehill (potential volume upgrade) was a dud in lineups last week, going 8/15 for only 72 yards in the win, despite starting strong on his first drive with multiple completions and a TD throw. As the game wore on, he struggled to find anything downfield and the Titans settled into a ground and pound approach to bleed the clock and pull out a win. The Ravens secondary is unlikely to be much softer on Tannehill this week, as their four main CBs all rank in the top-35 in yards per cover snap as graded by PFF (Rotoworld). The one factor that may work in his favor is a potential shootout forced by the Ravens’ potent offense; if the Titans are facing a big second half deficit they will be less able to lean on their run game. Tannehill isn’t a great play, but makes for a possible dice roll in hopes this turns into a high-scoring and pass-happy affair.
With Tannehill limited by both volume and ineffectiveness, none of the Titans WRs were able to produce last week. That could change if the Ravens force this game into a higher scoring affair - their offense is in another world from the Patriots this season - so there is hope for these pass-catchers this week. While the Ravens secondary is among the best in the NFL, they did rank middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs over the course of the season. Still, they are now ranked by DVOA as the 2nd best defense in the league (based on Weighted DVOA, since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted), so this will be a tough matchup. The projected negative game flow could play in the Titans WRs favor though; any increase in volume would be welcomed. AJ Brown (slight upgrade) is the safest bet of this group as he was on an extreme hot streak to finish the regular season, and is not the first WR to be shut down by the Pats defense, so prospective owners should try to have a short memory. Expect him to lead the team in targets and/or catches, and he has a solid shot of bouncing back. He makes for a quality Saturday play based on hope for volume and high-scoring conditions. Corey Davis (volume downgrade) is much riskier, as he hasn’t seen the targets to believe he can produce well this week. He’s no more than a low-end dart throw in hopes of a red zone target or two. Jonnu Smith (matchup downgrade) was ineffective last week, and now faces a Baltimore defense that ceded the fewest FPPG to TEs in the regular season. He still has the upside and athleticism to pop off a big play or two, but he is not a trustworthy play. Ultimately, only Brown is worthy of rostering unless you are willing to roll the dice.
RB Breakdown
There is really no other way to describe Derrick Henry’s (upgrade) performance last week other than pure dominance. Yes, he is running behind a strong O-Line, and yes he is in a scheme that plays to his strengths. However, in watching the tape it’s clear that on many of his runs he is creating a large portion of the yards on his own. This season, he was tops in the NFL in yards after contact with 973, and was third in broken tackles at 29 ( He continues to run around, past, and through defenders on a weekly basis. Baltimore’s defense did well to limit RBs through the regular season, but that was in part due to their lack of RB receptions allowed, which doesn’t affect Henry as much (Rotoworld). They will do everything they can to limit Henry this week, and potential negative game script may limit his second half touches, but Henry is still a top play for Saturday. He will get 20+ touches, likely see at least one goal line opportunity, and is the only real hope the Titans have of springing the upset. Just be aware there is concern of negative game-flow limiting him slightly. Dion Lewis is not a realistic fantasy option.


Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN) Wednesday Report: LB Jayon Brown (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL) Wednesday Report: Mark Ingram (Q) Mark Andrews (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Adoree Jackson (unlikely full shadow, Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Mark Andrews (22% Marquise Brown (14%) Jaleel Scott (14%) Seth Roberts (12%) Willie Snead (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 16: Mark Ingram (41%, 10, 2) Gus Edwards (41%, 13, 1) Justice Hill (18%, 6, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens head into Divisional Weekend fresh and rested, and Lamar Jackson (upgrade) now gets the opportunity to rack up the first of what should be many playoff wins in his career. The all but certain 2019 NFL MVP last took the field in Week 16 when he orchestrated a win over the Browns to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. Fantasy owners need no reminder of the ridiculous numbers Jackson put up in the regular season, and there is little reason to expect much of a dropoff on Saturday. The Titans were strong against the pass in the regular season, and looked impressive in holding Tom Brady to 209 yards with no scores and one interception. However, Jackson’s game is as much running as it is passing, and there has been no team that truly slowed him from racking up yards in either area during the regular season. Jackson is the top play at QB for the weekend, and should pay off well for prospective owners that choose to invest in him.
Jackson’s historical rushing production meant that owners were unable to glean much from this passing game. Only Mark Andrews (upgrade) was a consistent fantasy option throughout the year, and he quickly became a top-5 weekly option. Tennessee gave up the 6th most FPPG to TEs through the regular season, so this is a plus matchup for the stud TE. Andrews is a top option for the Saturday slate, or the weekend overall, and should be a staple in lineups that can afford him. After that, things get tricky. Marquise Brown (slight upgrade) proved to be worth owning this season, but he was still a weekly bust candidate if not catching a deep ball or snagging one of Jackson’s five passing TDs on a given week. The Titans were middle of the pack against WRs, and have a below-average pass DVOA, but Brown should see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage as well. Jackson has the speed to keep up with Brown in theory, so there’s less of a perceived advantage there. However, if Jackson gets his passing game going, Brown is second only to Andrews in terms of likely production received from said passing. Consider Brown a boom or bust WR3 type this week; he’s an intriguing tournament option to go against the grain. No other Baltimore pass-catcher can realistically be put into a lineup.
RB Breakdown
Thursday’s practice report brought about a limited session for veteran starting RB Mark Ingram (questionable), and there are mixed reports about his potential availability. If he is able to play, Ingram may see slightly reduced snaps, although he has already been only about a 50-60% snap guy in the regular season, but his touch count could be further limited. The matchup with the Titans is somewhat favorable - they had the 19th worst run DVOA but gave up the 13th fewest FPPG to RBs - and the Ravens are huge home favorites, which increases his odds of punching in a TD or two. This gives his outlook a boost, but the injury concern merits close monitoring, and could put him at risk for an in-game aggravation that would tank any lineup. If he is ultimately ruled out prior to kickoff, Gus Edwards (volume upgrade if Ingram sits) and Justice Hill immediately vault into potential solid plays. Edwards would likely see the bulk of the early down work, with Hill mixing in as a change of pace and passing game option. Still, Hill didn’t get much passing involvement in the regular season, and would be virtually impossible to trust unless clear reports emerged stating his expected involvement (unlikely). Edwards would be the much stronger play, and would actually become one of the best value options of the weekend. He would likely see around 15-20 touches and have first shot at goal line opportunities. Keep a close eye on the injury reports, and consider avoiding the situation entirely unless a definitive report about Ingram surfaces in advance of lineups locking.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Titans 17
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

How to Bet on Sports for Beginners

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs

When the oddsmakers release (also known as opening) a line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog. The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game, while the underdog is expected to lose. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a “pick” or “pick’em.”

2. Spreads

There are two different ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread. This is based on which team will cover. A favorite “gives” points, while an underdog “gets” points. For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you “cover.” If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a “push,” which means you get back the money you originally bet. If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
On the flip side, if you bet on the Jets “plus the points” (+7), you need the Jets to either win the game lose by six points or fewer for you to win (or cover) your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on football and basketball.

3. Moneylines

The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game. Favorites are given a “minus” designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you’re out $200. Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Underdogs are given a “plus” designation, such as +150, +200 or +500. If an underdog is +200, that means if you bet $100 on them and they win the game, you get $200. If they lose the game, you lose only the $100 that you risked. Because underdogs are expected to lose, there is more of a reward when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on baseball, hockey and soccer.
submitted by PresentType to databet88info [link] [comments]

NBA Sports Betting Picks & Stats (February 11th) from CheatSheetPros!

NBA Sports Betting Report (February 11, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
I’m working on a new add on to the sports betting model on our NBA Cheatsheet. I’m making an ON/OFF database to sync in so if a big time player is OUT suddenly you can enter their name and change all the stats to match their on/off the court numbers. It is very time consuming but I’m going to get this done!
We have this game as 121-113 with LAC covering the small -1.5 spread. I’m going to agree with the sheet on this play and take the Clippers here. LAC is 7-3 in their L10 games while Philly has been struggling even though they have won 2 straight. Philly is a horrible 9-19 on the road but an amazing 24-2 at home. As for the total it opened at 225 and down to 224.5 and we have this game at 234 going over by 9 points. I do like the over here as both teams are playing at the same pace so we don’t have to worry about one team dragging the other down. The L3 average combined the teams are scoring 238 ppg and allowing 225 ppg so I think 224.5 is a good number.
NBA CheatSheet says: LAC -1.5 and over 224.5
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: LAC is hitting 78% from the FT line the last 3 games while PHI is down to 66% for a 12% advantage to LAC. LAC has the edge on offensive efficiency at 1.19 vs. 1.07 for Philly.
We have this game way to close to pick a side. We have WAS winning 114-112 and scoring 226 points total. With the Vegas spread opening at WAS -2.5 and moving to -3 and the total at 230 we are pretty in line with the Vegas numbers so I don’t think there is an edge here. My personal opinion says WAS -3 is the bet.
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: WAS has a much better defensive efficiency over the L3 at allowing only a 1.09 vs. a whopping 1.21 for CHI. WAS also has 6.4 less turnovers per game over the L3 and 2.7 more blocks. CHI appears to be dominating the offensive boards with a couple more steals. Tight game but I like WAS here.
I am off the sides for this game due to DeRozan being out. If I had more time this afternoon I’d dig into the on/off the court numbers for DeRozan and then the likely starting lineup but I don’t so I will pass. When there is a key injury in a game like this I don’t use the sheet (or at least until I have the on/off calculations built in!). So I’m watching the Vegas line and bet %. Right now we have OKC opened at -6.5 and moved out to -9. Total opened at 221.5 and moved down to 218.5 with 89% of the bets. I think the play here is on the under 218.5 if you want some action on this game. Both teams have a pace below 100. Spurs playing at 98.0 and Thunder playing at 97.6 and that results in less possessions and less points.
We like the UNDER 218.5 and don’t mine it parlayed with OKC moneyline.
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: SAS are 8-19 on the road, 2-8 in their L10 games and lost 5 in a row. OKC is 17-11 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games.
What a game this should be with a 240 point Vegas total and a close -3 spread! We have this about as even as it gets with our models pegging this game at 119-118 Pelicans, 116-116, 118-118 and average out 118-118 for a 235-236 point total. I don’t think there is an edge here to be had. Pelicans are 10-16 at home and Portland is 10-18 on the road while both teams are 7-3 and 6-4 in their L10 games. Stats across the board are very close with the exception of POR having a 1.15 to 1.07 offensive efficiency advantage but then Pelicans take it back on the defensive said with a 1.06 vs. 1.11 advantage. NOR is taking down a ton more offensive boards per game but then they also have 6 more turnovers per game. 82% of the bets are on the under 240 total.
No opinion on this game and excited to see how it turns out!
NBA cheat sheet has this as a BOS pick winning 114-109 with 223 total points scored. The stats say BOS has a 13% higher 3P% and an offensive efficiency advantage at 1.16 vs. 1.04 and a better defensive efficiency advantage allowing only a 1.08 vs. 1.13 number. BOS also has 9.6 more rebounds per game and 3.3 more offensive boards per game. BOS is also 9-1 in their L10 games and coming off of wins over OKC 112-111, ATL 112-107, ORL 116-100, ATL 123-115 and PHI 116-95. HOU is coming off two losses as UTAH squeaked by 114-113 and then PHO thumped Houston 127-91. However, HOU is also 18-8 at home. Sheet says take BOS on the money line. My opinion is that I can’t get HOU correct, when I’m on them they lose, when I’m against them they roll so I’m fading this game from a personal betting standpoint. For tracking I’m taking the sheet play of BOS +2.
LAC -1.5
LAC over 224.5
WAS -3
OKC (money line) parlayed in with some other games you like.
REMEMBER! We still haven’t caught up with all the trades so some of the stats we are using are reflecting players that are not there anymore. Each team should have 3 new games under their belt before you really start using the stats!
NEW for 2020! – Follow Us on TWITTER: @ CheatSheetPros and get any last minutes plays we like!
Thank you for reading and good luck!
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Introducing Gambit | A New Swagbucks Partnership

Hello there, before we get started here, I have a couple things to get out of the way.
  1. You must be 18+.
  2. This post involves gambling. Even though I'm going to explain ways that are likely to help you profit regardless, understand there is a chance for loss.
  3. I'm writing this post with the assumption that you're already familiar with Swagbucks. If you aren't, familiarize yourself and come back ;). Read more about Swagbucks here.

Introducing Gambit Rewards

Prodege sure likes to get some bomb ass partnerships (like the recent partnership with Aspiration, or when they tried boosting their sales by discounting SB), and now Gambit is their latest partnership.
Gambit is a company that started last year (although more recently launched) and they started out partnered with Swagbucks.
Here's how Gambit works:
  1. You'll sign up for Gambit. (If you'd want to sign up under a ref link, find a referrral train in the comments). There is a sign up bonus of 100 tokens (worth roughly $1).
  2. You can then use your tokens to 'play games'. (Playing games = betting on sport outcomes, really).
  3. If you win the bet, the tokens you win from the bet will become, "Available winnings."
  4. You can then cash out your winnings.
There's a lot of important notes to be made here, as well as the potential use case where Gambit can be an extremely smart method to cash out your SB.

How the Swagbucks partnership works

Swagbucks' partnership with Gambit includes two nice features:
  1. The ability to convert SB to Gambit tokens at a 50% bonus (200 SB -> 300 Gambit tokens, where 300 gambit tokens is worth 300 SB)
  2. The ability to convert Gambit "available winnings" to SB at a 1:1 ratio.
You can purchase 300 Gambit tokens for 200 SB here.
NOTE: You cannot convert your gambit tokens into SB immediately. You must first gamble your tokens, and you can then cash out your winnings.

How to Play (and hopefully win) the games

The first thing I want to make clear here is that you're betting on actual sports. No matter what advice I give you to increase your odds of winning, understand that you're risking regardless, so keep this in mind.
Having said that, here's some advice.
Since you're required to gamble your gambit tokens before you can cash them out (and lock in that 50% SB bonus), there's no reason to take big risks. What I have done is wait for a game to appear where the winner is extremely easy to predict. In my case, I bet my gambit tokens on the Lions vs Vikings game that happened yesterday. The winner was obvious. The Lions are bad (which makes me sad), and the Vikings is one of the best teams. Although my winnings for the bet were only 1.12x, the real winnings come from the 50% bonus you'll lock in on your SB. Here's a SS of this case.
It doesn't make sense to actually use Gambit as an actual sports betting site, by the way. There's better options. I'll talk more about that in the conclusion.

Cashing out

Cashing out your available winnings on Gambit is a little interesting.
If you'd like, you could cash out for USD at a rate where 1 Gambit token is worth $0.009 (a 9% fee). There's a $5 minimum. I wouldn't recommend this, because you could otherwise cash out to SB at a 1:1 rate (no fees), where there's no minimum (?).
IMPORTANT: Transferring to SB seems to be broken currently. According to a SB rep, it should be coming back soon.

Conclusion / Is it worth it?

So in a perfect case, you would then convert your Gambit winnings to SB, and then from SB back to Gambit tokens at a 50% bonus.
But is it worth it?
The one last thing that I noticed that was mentioned by spacecadetjesus is how terrible the vig that Gambit charges is.
The catch is that the vig Gambit charges on a bet is highway robbery and clearly targeted towards people who don't know any better.
Just looking at the spreads: a standard line at any reputable betting site is -110. That means you bet 110 to profit 100 -- the 10% is the vig. On Gambit you have to bet 110 to profit 79. Holy crap. The best sports bettors in the world would get crushed. I assume the moneylines are just as bad.
I tend to recommend against gambling, but I feel like this option may be useful for some people who may be interested in receiving PayPal below the $25 minimum that SB sets (although taking a risk), or people who are interested in sports betting, and finds the 50% bonus attractive, despite the low payouts as mentioned by spacecadetjesus.
There are more comments in this thread that discuss the viability of gambling on Gambit.
The last thing I want to mention is that Gambit is really shady loophole in the sense that they allow anyone to use their site, even though sports betting online isn't even allowed everywhere in the US. They get around this by saying that nobody is actually gambling real money because the basis of the company is that you're gambling with loyalty points from sites (ex: Swagbucks). This article mentions that they want to expand to many loyalty programs - not just Swagbucks.
The same article also explains the benefit of a loyalty program wanting to use Gambit as follows:
Additionally, the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 15 now stipulates that loyalty points must be treated as deferred revenue, which can weigh heavily on companies' bottom lines. By letting consumers transfer points for tokens, Gambit creates a way for brands to convert unused points into revenue and get them off their books.
So, uh... take that as you wish.
Alright, please comment your thoughts on Gambit. Do you think it's worth the risk for the 50% bonus on gambit tokens? Or, in the case that someone really wanted to use their SB for gambling, do you think that someone would be better off cashing out for $25 PayPal and using the $25 to gamble on a more established site (without the bonus)?
Also, I don't give a shit about referrals here, they're too confusing for me. Please feel free to start a referral train below :).
Last thing: richpistilli claims to be the founder of Gambit, hopefully he'll come into this thread and answers further questions.
submitted by Fishering to beermoney [link] [comments]

How to Sports Bet Part 1 - Understanding The Moneyline THE MONEYLINE Sports Betting: How to Read the Moneyline and Total Sports Betting 101: Moneyline Betting Explained - How a Moneyline Works in Sports Betting How To Win at Sports Betting: Money Line Favorites

Everyone makes moneyline bets without even knowing it. Even non-gamblers make moneyline bets. Betting the moneyline for a game is possibly the most simple way to wager on sports. Bettors just choose a player or team to win.If the bettor chooses the winning side, the sportsbook will pay the amount due. Betting the moneyline in those sports is less popular because you might have some big mismatches and then it becomes too challenging to have faith in the underdog winning outright or too costly to Situational Moneyline Betting. As you become more comfortable with sports betting and understanding moneyline odds, there are a variety of scenarios that may arise that aren’t as common as the examples above. Let’s explore those: No Obvious Favorite. When betting on moneylines, not every matchup will have a clear favorite or underdog. Money lines (also called American Odds) are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. They do not use a point spread, and are straight-up bets on who will win the game or event. To properly explain how to bet the money line, the first thing to understand is the difference between a negative and positive money line. In the world of sports betting, a moneyline bet is simply betting on which team you expect to win. It doesn’t have anything to do with a spread. You may also see a moneyline bet listed as “Money Line” or “ML” in different spaces. Money lines are represented in negative and positive values. Negative moneyline: -145, -220, or anything

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How to Sports Bet Part 1 - Understanding The Moneyline

How To Win at Sports Betting: Money Line Favorites Everyone has struggles with betting sports whether you are a serious bettor or just wager recreationally. In Mitch's series, How to WIn at Sports ... This is the first in a series of how to bet on sports. This is a very basic video exploring the moneylines. Most of you probably know all this and can skip it. Sports Betting 101 *6 Episode Series* Ep.1- The Spread Ep.2- "The Juice" Ep.3- MoneyLine Ep.4- Over/Under Ep.5- Parlay Ep.6- Bankroll "MoneyLine" Tune in for episode three of six with 2T's & Will ... An example of the moneyline betting is betting on Cleveland Cavaliers to beat Golden State Warriors at a moneyline of +170. This means that if you bet $100 that Cavs win, then you win a profit of ... How a Moneyline Works in Sports Betting (Moneyline Betting Explained) is the latest episode of our “Sports Betting 101 (Sports Betting Explained - Sports Betting How To) Series for the ...