NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
1 New England Patriots (12-4) 2 Buffalo Bills (10-6) 3 New York Jets (7-9) 4 Miami Dolphins (5-11)
The Jets did not make any major coaching changes this offseason, retaining HC Adam Gase, OC Dowell Loggains, and DC Gregg Williams.
The Jets reshaped their weapons for Sam Darnold this offseason, losing three veterans and bringing in a number of free agents and draft picks. GM Joe Douglas opted not to re-sign RB Bilal Powell who the Jets drafted in 2011, and he remains a free agent. Most significantly, Douglas allowed his top offensive weapon in WR Robby Anderson to walk to Carolina on a 2 year, $20.0 MM deal, creating a void at outside receiver. The team has also not re-signed WR Demaryius Thomas, who filled in for Quincy Enunwa last season, and he remains a free agent.
The biggest change that the Jets made to their personnel this offseason was along the offensive line, and as such there were a number of veteran casualties. LT Kelvin Beachum started for the Jets from 2017 to 2019, but he seems to have regressed, and he remains a free agent. The Jets also let C Ryan Kalil go, who unretired to snap for Sam Darnold last offseason but disappointed and got injured, and he remains a free agent. RG Tom Compton was forced into action last season with the injury to Brian Winters, and he, as is characteristic of his NFL career thus far, struggled massively in run blocking and pass pro, but he projects to compete anyway next year for San Francisco on a 1 year deal. Joe Douglas and Adam Gase never expressed interest in RT Brandon Shell for the long term, benching him for the raw Chuma Edoga early in 2019, so it was not a surprise to see the Jets let Shell go to start for Seattle on a 2 year contract.
The Jets mostly kept their defense in tact this offseason, only losing two key pieces. EDGE Brandon Copeland left for New England on a 1 year contract, which is not a surprising location, as Copeland is a great utility player, functioning as a rush linebacker, an off-ball linebacker, and a core special teamer for the Jets in 2019. Similarly, Joe Douglas has not re-signed the versatile FS Rontez Miles, who has played single-high safety, box safety, and a key special teams role during his seven-year Jets tenure, and he remains a free agent.
The Jets cut CB Trumaine Johnson, which was virtually a no-brainer after two injury-plagued seasons in which his lack of speed was frequently exposed. The only real decision was whether to cut Johnson immediately, which would have resulted in a $12.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020, or to designate Johnson as a post-June 1 cut, which would have resulted in a $4.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020 and a $8.0 MM dead cap hit in 2021. Joe Douglas opted for the latter, meaning that the Jets saved a total of $11.0 MM by cutting Johnson in 2020. Grade: A
The Jets cut FS Darryl Roberts in mid-March. The Jets had high hopes for Roberts following the 2018 season, prompting them to sign him to a three-year contract with an out after one year. Roberts had a rocky first eight games of the season at cornerback before injuring his calf and being benched in favor of Maulet, Austin, and Canady. Roberts remained a special-teams asset and good safety depth in December, but ultimately GM Joe Douglas decided he could cut Roberts, save $6.0 MM, and look elsewhere for a replacement. Grade: B
Greg Van Roten
Jets GM Joe Douglas used to work in Baltimore, where he was supposedly very influential in the decision to draft QB Joe Flacco, so this signing is far from surprising. While Joe Flacco may be trending down in his play, $1.5 MM feels like a bargain for the chance at solid veteran insurance for Sam Darnold. However, his neck surgery will supposedly keep him out for the opening of the season. Grade: B
After the draft, the Jets signed RB Frank Gore to a 1 year, $1.1 MM deal to ensure that he will play his 16th season in green and white. Gore is a physical back who played under Jets HC Adam Gase in San Francisco in 2008 and in Miami in 2018. Gore can take some of the pressure off of starting RB Le'Veon Bell in 2020 as the Jets move towards a "runningback by committee" system. Grade: B
The Jets-Ravens connection proved strong again with the signing of WR Breshad Perriman. Perriman was a first-round pick for the Ravens in 2015 while current Jets' Director of Player Personnel Chad Alexander was with Baltimore, and though he never really produced at a high level there, he had a resurgence in 2019 for the Buccaneers. Especially in November and December, where he performed at a 1000-yard rate projected over a whole season, Perriman proved to be a legitimate outside option across from Mike Evans with Chris Godwin in the slot. Perriman is a big, athletic receiver who projects to be well-worth the $6.5 MM deal to start on the outside. Grade: B
Yet again, the Jets signed a former Ravens player, re-signing LG Alex Lewis, who played 2016 through 2018 with Baltimore before GM Joe Douglas traded for him in the 2019 offseason. Lewis stepped in for Kelechi Osemele last season and was a serviceable starter. Lewis is good in pass pro, versatile, and a good zone fit as a guard. However, Lewis could touch up on his penalties and overall run blocking for 2020. GM Joe Douglas only gave Lewis a 3 year, $18.6 MM deal which actually has an out after 1 year, which seems like a solid price to get another look at a 28-year-old guard who might be part of the team's future. Grade: B
The Jets' biggest free-agent singing in 2020 in terms of guaranteed money was former Broncos' C Connor McGovern at $18.0 MM. McGovern is an athletic lineman with experience at guard and center. He is a powerful center, and that serves him well in the run game. However, McGovern has a weak anchor and inconsistent pad level and leverage in the pass game. For this reason, despite the need at center, Joe Douglas' decision to commit two years to a center who is, perhaps, below average in pass pro is worthy of scrutiny. Grade: C
The biggest heavily-scrutinized acquisition that the Jets made in 2020 was probably signing former Seahawks RT George Fant to a 3 year, $27.3 MM contract. Fant functioned primarily as a swing tackle and as a sixth offensive lineman in Seattle, as he could not see the field as a starter over Germain Ifedi. Fant remains a very raw pass protector in terms of his anchor and the fluidity of his kickslide, and his ability in the run is only theoretically a strength in zone blocking. While Fant's contract has an out in 2021, it is a bit strange to see him making a similar salary to Bryan Bulaga and Halapoulvaati Vaitai. Grade: D
The Jets were patient in re-signing their own free agents, which probably helped get good value retaining EDGE Jordan Jenkins. Despite notching 15 combined sacks over the past two seasons, Jenkins only got $3.9 MM from the Jets. The sack number is a bit misleading, though, due to a high quantity of "coverage sacks" and a relatively modest pressure rate. However, Jenkins is a fine run defender, and he'll slot in as EDGE #1 again for the bets in 2020. Grade: B
The Jets also acquired a former Raven on defense with LB Patrick Onwuasor, and they only paid $2.0 MM to bring him in. Onwuasor is an undersized linebacker but a good linear athlete, and while he struggles reading offensive cues and getting off of blocks to stop the run, he is a really good coverage player with the ability to get home as a pass rusher. Onwuasor has played next to CJ Mosley before, and he could potentially contribute in subpackage and base 4-3 looks, in addition to in a depth capacity and on special teams. Grade: B
With the cuts of Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts, GM Joe Douglas decided to fill a starting cornerback spot with former Colts CB Pierre Desir on a 1 year, prove-it deal. Desir lacks longspeed, but he is a long, physical corner with decent short-area quickness. However, Desir lacks refinement in press and zone. With that said, $4.0 MM is a reasonable price to get a fill-in outside cornerback in 2020. Grade: B
This signing probably didnt get much national coverage, but re-signing CB Arthur Maulet could pay huge dividends for the Jets in 2020. In 2019, Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts failed to hit expectations, forcing Maulet, Nate Hairston, and rookie Blessuan Austin into the outside cornerback rotation. Maulet is the only one of that group who was not benched for performance reasons. For a mere $0.9 MM, retaining a guy in Maulet who is familiar with the defense who will compete to start in 2020 is seemingly a no-brainer. Grade: A
Instead of making another draft choice, the Jets decided to trade pick 211 for former Colts CB Quincy Wilson. Wilson, a former second-round pick, was a raw prospect coming out of Florida, and his penalties and lack of zone instincts followed him to the pros and led to his benching. However, Wilson is a big, long, and athletic corner, and at only 23 years of age, it makes sense that GM Joe Douglas wants to bring him on board to compete in an iffy cornerback room. Grade: C
This signing went somewhat under-the-radar, but Jets fans were thrilled when the team retained DB Brian Poole to man the slot on a 1 year, $5.0 MM contract. Poole is a good run defender with an ability to rush the passer, and he had a career year in coverage in 2019. Brian Poole is a good fit for Gregg Williams' defense, so retaining him to start in 2020 for a mere $5.0 MM seems to be a good value. Grade: B
The eleventh pick, Louisville T Mekhi Becton, was my favorite acquisition that the Jets made during the 2020 offseason. While there were other options on the board, namely Tristan Wirfs, Henry Ruggs, and Ceedee Lamb, that the Jets presumably could have considered, Becton was the exact player I thought the Jets should take when he fell to 11. The first thing that stands out about Becton is his massive size, as he's 6'7", 364 lbs, with a monstrous 83-inch wingspan. Becton, however, is much more than a heavy lineman, as he defies the norm with his exceptional 5.1-flat movement skills. Becton is a hulking run blocker who is inexperienced but a fluid mover in pass pro. Becton projects to replace Kelvin Beachum and slide in at left tackle immediately in his rookie season. Grade: A
Wanting to add more picks to build the Jets in his image in his first year as GM, Joe Douglas opted to move down from 48 to 59 in the second round. This was a costly move, as it caused the Jets to miss out on AJ Epenesa and Darrell Taylor, but the Jets managed to grab a falling Senior Bowl standout in Baylor WR Denzel Mims. Mims is a height-weight-speed freak with good length, hands, and run-blocking toughness. Mims should slot in as a starting outside receiver across from Breshad Perriman in year one. Grade: B
The Jets' first third-round pick of 2020 was a real surprise to many fans, as although the team already had arguably the best safety tandem in football with Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, the Jets drafted California FS Ashytn Davis with the 68th-overall draft selection. Davis is a freak athlete who played single-high safety, box safety, and even slot cornerback at Cal and would almost definitely have been drafted significantly higher but for teams' inability to medically check his groin post-surgery. It's possible that Gregg Williams will utilize Davis as a big nickel defender this year, but this selection could also give the Jets flexibility if Marcus Maye, who is a free agent in 2021, or Jamal Adams, with whom the Jets are supposedly far apart on a long-term contract, depart. Grade: B
Despite having a starting EDGE tandem consisting of Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham and losing Brandon Copeland to New England, the Jets did not add outside talent to the position group before the draft, forcing GM Joe Douglas to pick Florida EDGE Jabari Zuniga at 79 overall. Zuniga is a good linear athlete with a decent ability to set the edge and with some interior versatility, and he could maybe project to replace Jordan Jenkins as a starter in 2021. However, Zuniga struggles with stiff hips and slow reaction time at the snap, and plus he missed most of the 2019 season with ankle injuries. The Jets probably hit the right position with Zuniga, who should factor into the pass-rush rotation with Jenkins, Basham, and 2019 UDFA Kyle Phillips, but it's really hard to justify drafting Zuniga with guys like Jonathan Greenard, Terrell Lewis, and DJ Wonnum still on the board. Grade: C
With his first day-3 selection as GM, Joe Douglas chose Florida RB La'Mical Perine. Perine is a physical runner with some receiving versatility out of the backfield. However, Perine doesn't really offer very much in terms of speed or vision, and drafting a RB instead of going offensive line, pass rush, receiver, or cornerback when Le'Veon Bell was already in the fold was a curious move. Grade: D
The second of the Jets' fourth-round picks probably stirred up the most intrigue, as most casual fans probably didn't expect the Jets to draft a quarterback. With that said, the Jets have gone a combined 0-6 over the past two seasons in games that Darnold did not start, and at this time David Fales was slated to be the backup quarterback, so drafting FIU QB James Morgan in the fourth round, which I thought was a value anyway, was a good choice. Morgan is a thick quarterback with a live arm with developmental quarterback potential. Grade: B
With their third pick in the fourth round, the Jets chose a player with the potential to start soon on the offensive line in Charlotte T Cameron Clark. Clark is a powerful lineman who started at left tackle in his rSo, rJr, and rSr seasons and has good short-area quickness despite his 5.29 forty. Some have floated Cameron Clark as a potential convert to guard for the Jets due to his sloppy pass-pro footwork. Grade: B
The Jets went corner in round 5, taking Virginia CB Bryce Hall at 158 overall. Hall is a long, tall corner who moves well, has zone instincts, and contributes in the run game. However, Hall's struggles in press and off-man coverage schemes probably project him better as a safety in the NFL rather than as a corner, which doesn't seem to be a need with Adams, Maye, and Davis already on the roster, and Hall's ankle injury prevented him from working out at the Combine, leaving teams in a state of uncertainty about his health and his testing numbers. Grade: C
With their sixth-round pick, the Jets went special teams with Texas A&M P Braden Mann. Mann has a big leg and can handle kickoff duties. Mann projects to replace Lachlan Edwards, but this may have been a tad high for a punter. Grade: C
The Jets had an intriguing undrafted free agent class with a number of guys who warranted day-3 draft consideration, but two guys that I liked pre-draft stood out as being worth mentioning. Georgia WR Lawrence Cager is a physical receiver at the line of scrimmage who will attempt to make the team as a redzone threat. Alabama DB Shyheim Carter played the STAR role in Nick Saban's defense, and he proved his versatility as a college approximation of a subpackage linebacker, a nickel corner, a box safety, and even a high safety, so he'll vie to make the team as a versatile depth defensive back and as a special-teams ace.
Other Offseason News
After tensions flared at the trade deadline last season, SS Jamal Adams expressed his frustrations with a lack of a contract extension on social media before supposedly requesting a trade in June. However, according to Connor Hughes at The Athletic, the Jets still hope to sign Adams to a long-term contract. Reportedly, over half of the teams in the NFL have expressed interest in adding the defensive star, but the Dallas Cowboys have gotten the most traction as a potential trade partner, with RT La'El Collins and WR Michael Gallup coming up as potential trade pieces. Jamal Adams is still on his rookie contract for 2020, and the Jets accepted his fifth-year option for 2021.
Also, this isn't really news, but former Jets' All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis continued his spat with 49ers' All-Pro CB Richard Sherman, culminating in this unusual Tweet:
3 facts here. @RSherman_25 •I’m more handsome than him according to women. •I’m better at corner than him according to everyone. •Shutdown corners are paid more than Zone 3 corners which I’m currently still am today.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Sam Darnold RB: Le’Veon Bell (and Frank Gore) WR: Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims SWR: Jamison Crowder TE: Chris Herndon (and Ryan Griffin) LT: Mekhi Becton LG: Alex Lewis C: Connor McGovern RG: Brian Winters RT: George Fant EDGE: Jordan Jenkins, Tarell Basham DT: Henry Anderson, Quinnen Williams (and Steve McLendon) ILB: CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson (and Patrick Onwuasor) CB: Pierre Desir, Arthur Maulet NCB: Brian Poole SS: Jamal Adams FS: Marcus Maye K: Sam Ficken P: Braden Mann LS: Thomas Hennessy
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses
QB - Neutral/Weakness Jets fans aren't going to love this one, but Sam Darnold is arguably still a bottom-third passer going into 2020. Darnold has been surrounded by a poor supporting cast over the past two years, including a turnstile of receivers across Robby Anderson with drop issues and linemen with pass-pro issues, but he certainly has not dominated like other young quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz. The Jets have a good group behind Darnold, though, including Joe Flacco, who said he won't be ready for week 1, and James Morgan, a fourth-round rookie out of FIU.
Backfield - Strength Le'Veon Bell, who is making $15.5 MM this season, is an all-around back in terms of running between the tackles, receiving, and pass protecting. The Jets also signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to take some of the pressure off of Bell. Joe Douglas also drafted La'Mical Perine to contribute in the backfield.
Pass Catchers - Neutral/Weakness In 2020, the Jets are banking on production from unproved pass catchers who have performed well in limited sample sizes. Joe Douglas signed Breshad Perriman, who had a very productive end to his 2019 season, to man one of the outside receiver spots. He also drafted Denzel Mims out of Baylor to presumably also start as a rookie. Jamison Crowder broke out last year as an above-average slot receiver, and Chris Herndon missed virtually all of last season but played well in his rookie season as a tight end. The receiver depth lacks standout names, but the tight end depth is strong, with Ryan Griffin returning on a multi-year extension.
Offensive Line - Weakness The Jets entirely remade their offensive line, and while each position is arguably improved on paper, it is still young and unproven. Most significantly, at LT, Joe Douglas drafted Mekhi Becton at 11, who is already a really good run blocker with the tools to grow in pass pro. Douglas also re-signed Alex Lewis, who is probably serviceable but below average, to start at left guard, but he could force competition from fourth-round rookie Cameron Clark. The Jets signed Connor McGovern to start at C, and while he should solidify the position for at least the last two years, he is not extraordinary. Right guard shapes up to be an open competition between incumbent Brian Winters, who is serviceable when healthy, and new acquisition Greg Van Roten. At RT, the Jets signed George Fant, who played mostly as a swing tackle or sixth offensive lineman for Seattle but certainly has the athletic ability to outperform Chuma Edoga from last year.
Defensive Line - Weakness This might be surprising to the non-Jets fans, but the days of Muhammad Wilkerson, and Leonard Williams are over, and pressure from the defensive line probably won't come easily for Gang Green. At EDGE, the Jets have arguably the worst duo in the NFL with Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham presumably playing as starters, with rookie 3rd-round pick Jabari Zuniga and 2019 UDFA Kyle Phillips playing rotationally. Starting on the interior, the Jets have Quinnen Williams, the former third-overall selection who notched 2.5 sacks and 4 TFLs in his rookie season and was arrested in March on a weapons charge, and Henry Anderson, a nimble interior penetrator who had a breakout year in 2018 before coming back down to Earth in 2019. Nathan Shepherd, Steve McLendon, and Foley Fatukasi should all see plenty of tread on the DL, as well.
Linebackers - Strength The Jets had a nearly-comical number of injuries at off-ball linebacker last season, but on paper, the unit appears very strong. CJ Mosley, 2019 FA acquisition, missed almost the entire 2019 season with a groin injury, but when healthy, he is one of the best linebackers in football. Avery Williamson, who projects to start across Mosley in 2020, is a good run defender but missed the entire 2019 year with a torn ACL. Returning starter Neville Hewitt, cheap FA acquisition Patrick Onwuasor, and promising second-year player Blake Cashman could each play in various base or subpackage roles, in addition to on special teams.
Secondary - Neutral Similar to the defensive line, the Jets secondary is a tale of two halves, in this case safeties and cornerbacks. At safety, the Jets have reigning All Pro Jamal Adams and solid free safety Marcus Maye returning, in addition to the versatile 3rd-round pick Ashtyn Davis out of Cal. Outside cornerback is in flux, as new acquisition Pierre Desir should lock up one spot, while Arthur Maulet, Quincy Wilson, and Blessuan Austin could compete for the other starting spot, with last year's breakout player Brian Poole locking up the slot. Nate Hairston, Javelin Guidry, Shyheim Carter, and 5th-round rookie Bryce Hall could compete for other key depth roles in the secondary.
Special Teams - Strength/Neutral At kicker, the Jets had a rocky performance last year, so they brought in Brett Maher, who hit 67% of his field goals last season, to compete with Sam Ficken, who hit 70% of his field goals last season. At punter, the Jets have rookie P Braden Mann, who handles kickoffs and whose 47.1 yards per punt would have ranked 4th in the NFL last year. At longsnapper, Thomas Hennessy is an asset in coverage and will return in 2020. Additionally, WR Vyncint Smith and FS Matthias Farley project to play major roles in kick coverage next season, with other jobs presumably up for grabs.
Week 1 at Buffalo: L - Other than the loss of Shaq Lawson and the additions of Stephon Diggs and AJ Epenesa, the Bills mostly had a quiet offseason, though with encouraging performances from young players in Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, and Tre'Davious White and coming off of a 10-6 campaign, there’s a lot about which to be enthusiastic in Buffalo. The Bills, who went 10-6 last year and made the playoffs, beat the Jets here in their home opener. Record: 0-1
Week 2 vs San Francisco: L - The 49ers took a huge leap in 2019, marching through the NFC and into the Super Bowl, and the additions of Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, and Trent Williams should keep them competitive in 2020. If Jamal Adams is on the team, he might be able to get in George Kittle's way, but nevertheless the 49ers should be one of the NFL's most well-rounded football teams, and it would be difficult to envision the Jets defeating them. Record: 0-2
Week 3 at Indianapolis: L - The Colts had a big free agency period, signing Philip Rivers and adding DeForest Buckner in a trade while retaining their entire offensive line. While the Jets went 7-9 last season, just like the Colts did, the Colts probably are the favorites to win at home, especially with the advantage the Indianapolis offensive line should have over the New York pass rush. Record: 0-3
Week 4 vs Denver: L - While the Broncos went 7-9 last season, they have championship aspirations in 2020, as they went 4-1 in Drew Lock's starts last year and added Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam to a group of weapons already containing Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Jeff Heuerman while retaining defensive stars in Von Miller, AJ Johnson, and Justin Simmons. Though it is a home game, it's hard to imagine the Jets defeating the Broncos in 2020. Record: 0-4
Week 5 vs Arizona: W - The Cardinals look poised to improve in 2020, with the additions of DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Phillips, and Isaiah Simmons, but questions remain with the offensive line and defensive line, in addition to with the poor playcalling from Kingsbury and Joseph at times during last season. This could be a key game for Quinnen Williams, Henry Anderson, Steve McLendon, and the interior defensive line to feast on a poor Cardinals' interior offensive line, and for Gregg Williams to outmatch Kingsbury and Murray at home. Record: 1-4
Week 6 at LA Chargers: L - The Chargers revamped their team this offseason, adding Justin Herbert in the draft and surrounding him with Bryan Bulaga, Trai Turner, and Joe Reed on offense, and Kenneth Murray and Chris Harris on defense. Though the quarterback situation is in flux in LA, it’s a bit hard to envision the Jets going on the road to the West Coast and beating an otherwise well-rounded team. Record: 1-5
Week 7 vs Buffalo: W - The Jets have beat the Bills at least once in 8 of the last 10 seasons, and so the Jets should have a good chance to win one at home. Record: 2-5
Week 8 at Kansas City: L - The Chiefs has a pretty quiet offseason aside from locking up Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones on long-term deals, as they added Mike Remmers, Taco Charlton, Willie Gay, and Lucas Niang while losing Stefen Wisniewski, Emmanuel Ogbah, Reggie Ragland, and Kendall Fuller. Despite the offseason losses, Reid and Mahomes should easily be able to storm past the Jets at home. Record: 2-6
Week 9 vs New England: W - The Patriots took a hit this offseason, obviously headlined by the loss of Tom Brady but also supplemented by key defensive losses in Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon in addition to a general lack of attention towards improving a lackluster wide receiver corps. The Jets haven't beat the Patriots since their week 16 overtime thriller in 2015, but a November home game could be a good chance to do it, as the Patriots don't really possess the weapons to exploit issues with the Jets' cornerbacks nor the pass rushers to exploit issues with the Jets' offensive line. Record: 3-6
Week 10 at Miami: W - The Dolphins had a very poor 2019, finishing 5-11 with the 27th-ranked total offense and the 30th-ranked total defense, and as such they had an incredibly busy offseason, adding Matt Breida, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah, Elandon Roberts, and Byron Jones in free agency and Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, and Solomon Kindley in the draft. However, in Miami before the bye would be a good chance for Adam Gase to get a revenge game win, seeing as the Dolphins still have weaknesses all over their roster including quarterback, offensive tackle, and edge rusher. Record: 4-6
WEEK 11 BYE
Week 12 vs Miami: L - With all their offseason additions, the Dolphins figure to match up fairly evenly with the Jets in 2020, and so it's likely that the two teams will split the season series. Record: 4-7
Week 13 vs Las Vegas: W - The Raiders had a very busy offseason, adding Jason Witten, Maliek Collins, Nick Kwiatkoski, Prince Amukamara, and Damarious Randall in free agency and Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, and Amik Robertson in the draft with their only major losses being Darryl Worley and Karl Joseph. At home against a West Coast opponent, the Jets would be wise to take advantage of some of the Raiders’ weaknesses in this game, including inexperience at wide receiver, edge rusher, linebacker, and cornerback. Record: 5-7
Week 14 at Seattle: L - The Seahawks went 11-5 last season and were one play away from securing the top seed in the NFC, so their offseason was pretty quiet, mostly focusing on the offensive line with the losses of Germain Ifedi, DJ Fluker, and George Fant and the additions of free agents Brandon Shell, BJ Finney, and Cedric Ogbuehi, and draft pick Damien Lewis. Pete Carroll is one of the best coaches in football today, and in this late-season matchup at Seattle he’ll have the personnel advantage against the Jets offense, which lacks talented weapons and blockers. Record: 5-8
Week 15 at LA Rams: L - The Rams regressed to 9-7 last year and then had a difficult offseason, losing Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler, and Nickell Robey-Coleman, with their only major addition being A’Shawn Robinson. The 2020 Rams are not the Super Bowl Rams of the past, but with both McVay and Goff still on board, the Rams have to be favorites to take this late-season home game against the Jets. Record: 5-9
Week 16 vs Cleveland: W - The Browns had a busy offseason, hiring head coach Kevin Stefanski, losing Greg Robinson, Joe Schobert, and Damarious Randall, signing Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin, Andrew Billings, Karl Joseph, and Damarious Randall, and drafting Jedrick Wills, Grant Delpit, and Jacob Phillips. Despite these additions, however, Cleveland still has a new, inexperienced offensive playcaller at head coach and a question mark at quarterback, and Gregg Williams generally handles quarterbacks who struggle with post-snap reads well with disguised coverages and aggressive blitz packages. Record: 6-9
Week 17 at New England: L - With the expanded playoffs, the Patriots have an even greater chance to make the postseason this year than they otherwise would, so this late-season match in Foxborough could be a consequential, divisional-revenge game. Record: 6-10
Final Record: 6-10 While I firmly believe that the Jets improved significantly this offseason, especially in terms of the offensive line and getting players back from injury, this year’s schedule is substantially more difficult that last year’s, which could result in less games in the wins column for 2020. Last year, the Jets closed out the back-half of their season going 6-2 playing against rookie Daniel Jones, rookie Dwayne Haskins, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Lamar Jackson, rookie Devlin Hodges, and Matt Barkley, and this year the Jets have to play both the AFC West and the NFC West, which is a huge jump in their level of competition.
Training Camp Battles to Watch
WR #2: Denzel Mims vs Vyncint Smith Jets fans would hope that starting receiver isn’t much of a battle, but since rookie wideouts traditionally have been known to take longer learning the playbook, the other receiver spot next to Perriman and Crowder is in flux. Denzel Mims, the rookie receiver from Baylor, is the odds-on favorite to get a starting role and to play as a deep threat and red-zone threat in year one. However, if Mims proves too raw off the bat, the Jets could fall back on Vyncint Smith, who had 17 receptions last year and showed his value as a deep threat.
Left Guard: Alex Lewis vs Cameron Clark Following a 2019 season where Alex Lewis spot-started in place of Kelechi Osemele, the Jets rewarded him with a 3 year, $18.6 MM contract, and he goes into 2020 as the favorite to start at left guard once again. With that being said, the possibility exists that rookie tackle Cameron Clark out of Charlotte will kick inside and compete at left guard.
Right Guard: Brian Winters vs Greg Van Roten After a 2019 season in which Brian Winters went down with a shoulder injury in week 10, many expected the Jets to cut him, but he instead will return as the incumbent starter at right guard. However, new free agent acquisition Greg Van Roten could switch to the right side and compete against Winters to start.
Right Tackle: George Fant vs Chuma Edoga After the Jets had a poor performance form their offensive line in 2019, GM Joe Douglas brought in competition at all position, including at right tackle. George Fant, former Seattle swing tackle, is the presumptive favorite to land the starting job, despite his lack of starting experience and struggles with pass-pro footwork. Chuma Edoga could compete as well, but his performance in both run blocking and pass pro was so shaky last year as a rookie that he needed extensive help from tight ends to prevent the right side from entirely becoming a liability.
EDGE #2: Tarell Basham vs Kyle Phillips vs Jabari Zuniga vs John Franklin-Myers The Jets started Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham at edge rusher last season, so it was somewhat of a shock to see them add absolutely no outside talent until the middle of the third round, and so now Gregg Williams and his defensive staff are forced to make the pitiful decision between starting Basham, Kyle Phillips, Jabari Zuniga, or John Franklin-Myers across from Jenkins. Basham, who the Jets claimed off of waivers in 2018, is probably the odds-on favorite to start once again after notching 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 54% of the Jets' defensive snaps. Kyle Phillips, the second-year player from Tennessee who was a five-star high-school recruit, is a thicker lineman best suited to play on run downs who could push for starting snaps as well. Jabari Zuniga, 3rd-round rookie out of Florida, is a third contender for the starting job, but his interior versatility and similarity to Jenkins in terms of his stiffness and poor pad level could suggest the Jets envision him in more of a rotational role. The wildcard in this battle is John Franklin-Myers, who was claimed by the Jets off of waivers from the Rams at the start of 2019 but who also notched a pair of sacks in his rookie year and is really explosive for his size.
DT #2: Henry Anderson vs Nathan Shepherd This battle won't get much media coverage, as both Anderson and Shepherd project to get plenty of tread on the New York defensive line, but nevertheless the two will compete in training camp for the upper hand in the snap count. Henry Anderson, the penetrating defensive lineman, saw his production fall off a bit in 2019, in part due to a nagging shoulder injury and utilization in different fronts and roles. Nathan Shepherd saw his role increase in the back half of the season after a suspension saw his role increase in the back half of the season after a suspension sidelined him from weeks two through eight, and with a good camp, he could establish himself as the primary nimble-footed complement to the heftier, run-stopping trio of Quinnen Williams, Steve McLendon, and Foley Fatukasi.
CB #2: Arthur Maulet vs Quincy Wilson vs Bryce Hall vs Blessuan Austin The outside cornerback spot across from Pierre Desir is probably the most open starting battle on the team. Arthur Maulet, the undersized but physical cornerback out of Memphis, is probably the favorite to start after outplaying Johnson and Roberts last season to win the left cornerback job. Quincy Wilson, the former second-round pick, should be Maulet's primary competition after the Jets traded a draft pick to acquire him from the Colts. Bryce Hall, the rookie fifth-round corner from Virginia, is a darkhorse to start as well if he is healthy to start the season. Blessuan Austin, the former sixth-round pick, might factor into the competition, but he'll have Williams' doghouse after reacting poorly to his week-16 benching.
Kicker: Sam Ficken vs Brett Maher Sam Ficken, who hit 70% of his kicks last season, will compete with Brett Maher, who hit 67% of his kicks last season, for the starting kicker job, but neither candidate should have to handle kickoffs with rookie punter Braden Mann in the fold.
Offensive and Defensive Schemes
Adam Gase, head coach and offensive playcaller for the Jets, runs a zone blocking, short passing offense mostly out of 11 personnel while also mixing in some 2-TE sets. In the run game, Gase is willing to run gap concepts based on his offensive line personnel, but he certainly favors his inside zone running playcalls. In the pass game, Gase likes to stack his receivers, throw checkdowns, split his backs out wide, and utilize the sidelines.
Gregg Williams, defensive coordinator for the Jets, runs a 3-4 hybrid, blitz-heavy defense with an emphasis on zone coverage. In the front seven, Williams has used both 3-4 and 4-3 base packages, though he mostly uses nickel fronts and one-gapping penetration schemes. In the secondary, Williams stresses MOFC shells, press-zone concepts, and disguised coverages and blitzes.
Will the Detroit Lions win OVER/UNDER 6.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
Will the Detroit Lions win OVEUNDER 6.5 games? By University Stats Prof! 1. Introduction After firing Jim Caldwell following a 9-7 record in 2017, the Lions posted a 6-10 in Matt Patricia’s first year as a head coach. Things got even worse last season with a 3-12-1 record. This is a critical year for Patricia. The team has talent for sure. If he does not right the ship, he may be gone sooner rather than later. 2. Regular Season Wins According to sportsbooks, the Detroit Lions are expected to win 6.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Lions won more or less than 6.5 games.
Here are the results:
OVER 6.5 wins
UNDER 6.5 wins
Tip: Bet UNDER 6.5 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +1.4% Rank: 31st-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +127 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Lions’ 16 regular season games: HOME: -1.5 vs CHI, +2 vs GB, -1 vs HOU, +1.5 vs IND, +2 vs MIN, +5.5 vs NO, +2.5 vs TB, -6 vs WAS. ROAD: +3 @ ARI, +4 @ ATL, +1 @ CAR, +5 @ CHI, +6.5 @ GB, -1.5 @ JAX, +7 @ MIN, +6 @ TEN. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. 3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 3.1 QUARTERBACKS (QB) I feel bad for Matthew Stafford. He has to be one of the best quarterbacks to have never won a playoff game. He’s 0-3 in the postseason and has played for many terrible teams in Detroit during his 11-year career. He had yet another good season in 2019. He finished as the 8th-best QB in the league based on PFF rankings. He missed half the season because of injuries, but still threw 19 TD passes versus 5 picks. Prior to last year, he had not missed a single start over eight seasons, which is unbelievable! He’s a durable and tough guy. David Blough and Jeff Driskel didn’t do very well in Stafford’s absence. That’s a big reason why the team led Driskel go, while acquiring backup Chase Daniel from the Bears. I was stunned to realize that after spending 10 years in the NFL, Daniel has only thrown 7 TDs and 5 interceptions (most of them in 2018 and 2019 with Chicago). He received decent grades from PFF and he looks to be a definitive improvement over Blough and Driskel. 3.2 RUNNING BACKS (RB) I like what I’ve been from Kerryon Johnson over his first two seasons in the NFL. In each of those years, the former running back from Auburn was on pace to be close to a 1,000 rushing yard season, but his pro career has been marred by injuries thus far. Beyond the stats, I thought he passed the eye test. Upon seeing him play several games, he looked like a good back. In his third year, the main goal will be to prove he can make it through a full season. Johnson received a 66.7 grade from PFF last year, which put him in the #37 spot out of 58 RBs. I believe he can make a nice jump in 2020. Bo Scarbrough finally saw some action last season. He did “okay”, but his main limitation is in the passing game. He’s not much of a receiver. He’s still a decent weapon to have when running between the tackles because of his big frame. J.D. McKissic was the opposte of Scarbrough; he is undersized, but a good pass catcher. He still managed to post a lofty 5.4 yard per carry average, while catching 34 balls. However, he left for Washington. Considering Detroit’s backfield was already crowded, drafting D’Andre Swift in the 2nd round was a puzzling move. It probably means the Lions will go with a committee approach with Johnson and Swift being the RB 1A and 1B. Swift is a smart RB who has good vision and runs with patience; he understands and evaluates block timing very well. He is also pretty good out of the backfield; he caught many passes in college and was tagged with just three drops across 73 receptions. 3.3 WIDE RECEIVERS (WR) Can you believe Kenny Golladay’s salary was under one million last year? What an astonishing bargain for the Lions! Golladay solidified his position as one of the top wideouts in the league by posting a second consecutive 1,000-yard season. He also doubled his TD production by catching 11 last year versus 5 the year before. He has a great combination of size and athleticism, which allows him to stretch the field and make contested catches in traffic. His numbers have the potential to increase even more if Stafford can stay healthy for the whole season, and considering Golladay is only 26 years old. Marvin Jones posted a very nice 62-779-9 stat line despite missing three games. He has been a steady producer in this league, both with the Bengals and now with the Lions. A very reliable guy. Danny Amendola has never been a top wideout: his career best is 689 receiving yards back in 2010. However, having him as your #3 receiver is a nice luxury. The main concern pertains to his age, as he is now 34. His level of play has not deteriorated yet, but we should keep an eye on this situation. The team added even more depth by signing a younger guy: Geronimo Allison. The former Packer showed flashes during an injury-shortened 2018 season, but he really fell flat last year by catching just 34 balls despite a wide open #2 WR spot in Green Bay. He received poor grades from PFF and finished as the #111 receiver out of 122 qualifiers. 3.4 TIGHT ENDS (TE) Was T.J. Hockenson’s rookie season a success? The jury is still out on that one. Everyone got overly excited about his first career game, where he caught 6 passes for 131 yards and 1 TD. However, he surpassed 50 yards just once in his final 11 games (an ankle injury put him on injured reserve for the last four contests). He was the #8 overall pick in the 2019 draft, so the expectations were high for the former Hawkeye. The adaptation to the NFL-level is not always easy for rookie tight ends, so let’s cut him some slack. He is a candidate to improve his numbers greatly in his second season, especially with Stafford back under center. Both Logan Thomas and Jesse James caught 16 passes last year. Thomas left for Washington, which leaves James as the clear-cut #2 TE. He is an adequate backup for Detroit. 3.5 OFFENSIVE LINE (OL) Right tackle Rick Wagner provided respectable protection to his quarterbacks during his first six seasons, but his play tailed off dramatically last year. The team released him and signed Halapoulivaati Vaitai to replace him. Vaitai has only started 20 games in four seasons, but he played pretty well in spots with the Eagles last year and that earned him a jaw-dropping five-year, $50 million contract. That seems like a high price for a career backup, but he did grade as the 22nd-best tackle among 81 qualifiers in 2019. We’ll see if the Lions made a wise investment or not. The other four starters all received good marks from PFF: Taylor Decker (19th out of 81 tackles), Frank Ragnow (6th out of 37 centers), Graham Glasgow (12th out of 81 guards) and Joe Dahl (27th out of 81 guards). Yet, the team finished below-average in terms of sacks allowed (19th out of 32 teams). The bad news is Detroit also lost Graham Glasgow via free agency. He signed with the Denver Broncos. He has obtained grades above 70 by PFF in each of its past three seasons. His replacement is unlikely to match that performance. One potential replacement is third round selection Jonah Jackson. He needs to improve as a run blocker since he tends to struggle sustaining blocks. On the other hand, he’s more comfortable in passing situations, while also excelling at processing blitzes. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Lions scored the 18th most points in the NFL last season. That output is much more likely to go up than down. Except on the offensive line, we notice a potential upgrade over the 2019 season at all positions. At quarterback, having Stafford back is obviously a big boost. Also, Chase Daniel is a better back than the Blough-Driskel duo. At running back, Kerryon Johnson missed half the season. He also has two years of experience under his belt and is ready to explode. Rookie D’Andre Swift offers an additional potential deadly weapon. Adding Geronimo Allison to an already talent WR group won’t hurt. Golladay-Jones-Amendola will provide good targets for Stafford. Hockenson is now more familiar with the NFL speed and it was reported he played through some pain before landing on injured reserve. Again, an improvement seems a more likely scenario than a regression here. As mentioned above, the OL play will be a source of concern, though. Replacing Wagner with Vaitai could be a plus. However, Glasgow’s loss will be difficult to compensate. Still, overall I can see the Lions jumping to the 7th-12th rank on offense in 2020. You read this right; the Lions could have the number 7 offense in the NFL. They have a very talented and underrated group (with nice depth at all positions!). Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate upgrade 4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 4.1 DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (DL) The interior of the line has been completely revamped. That may not be a bad thing. Both Damon Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson are gone after a subpar year. They both graded as below-average last year, which was a big surprise in the case of Harrison. He obtained a grade above 90 as a run defender in each of its past four seasons, but cratered to 63.2 last year. What the heck happened? The newcomers are Danny Shelton, formerly of the Patriots, and Nick Williams, coming over from the Bears. Shelton has done very well in all five of his seasons in the league and is entering his prime. He’s a solid addition and he’s good a plugging up running lanes. I’m not so high on the Williams acquisition, though. He didn’t get good grades throughout his career until last year where he finally got some starts and posted six sacks. He could be a one-year wonder. He had been a journeyman thus far and is a former 7th-round pick. Mike Daniels is also off the team. The former didn’t do much in his lone season in Motor City. 4.2 DEFENSIVE ENDS (DE) / EDGE (ED) Both Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard recorded seven sacks last season. Kennard left for Arizona; his leadership as team captain will also be missed. Flowers is a vital piece of this defense. He will enter his age-27 campaign and he has racked up between 6.5 and 7.5 sacks every year since 2016. Who will step up in Kennard’s absence? Romeo Okwara will need to come back to his 2018 form, where he posted 7.5 sacks. Only getting 1.5 last year was a big disappointment. Another alternative may come from Romeo’s younger brother, Julian, who was taken in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. Considering Julian’s speed and strength (the bull rush remains his favorite move), you would have expected him to produce more in college. He still needs to learn good techniques to beat experienced offensive linemen. 4.3 LINEBACKERS (LB) Jarrad Davis, Christian Jones and Jahlani Tavai all played a bit above 50% of the defensive snaps last year. They ranked as the #84, #82 and #44 linebackers out of 89 guys. That’s bad. The position will get a lift with the acquisition of Jamie Collins. He led the Patriots with seven sacks last season, which was a career-high for him. I don’t mean to be disrespectful for him, but I believe he’s overrated. He enjoyed great 2014 and 2015 seasons in New England, but his played tailed off big time in his time away from the Patriots in 2016, 2017 and 2018. He came back with a pretty good season when reuniting with Belichick’s squad last year, but will he revert back to mediocre play in Detroit? Super Bowl champion Reggie Ragland also joins Matt Patricia’s team. He adds depth to the team and may play behind Jarrad Davis. 4.4 CORNERBACKS (CB) Last year, the trio made of Darius Slay, Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman saw the field pretty often. Slay and Melvin are gone to other teams. Slay had a very bad year as opposed to his previous five, but that may have been an outlier. He’s 29 years old and he’s likely to rebound in Philly. He asked to be traded after fights over contract negotiations. Unlike Slay, Melvin won’t be missed too much. He was an undrafted guy who is more of a rotational corner. In order to alleviate Slay’s loss, the Lions signed Desmond Trufant, formerly of the Falcons. His best days are behind him, but he has never received a grade below 69.5 by PFF over his seven-year career, which is remarkable. Last year’s 70.3 grade put him as the 32nd-best corner out of 112 qualifiers. The team’s instant #1 corner is rookie Jefffrey Okudah, who was taken with the third overall selection of this year’s draft. He’s a true lockdown corner who is likely to perform at a high level right away. Over the last two seasons at Ohio State, he held every wideout he faced to fewer than 50 receiving yards. He also surrendered just two touchdowns during that time frame. Those are outstanding numbers! Okudah is a blue chip prospect whose mental makeup and physical traits are elite. 4.5 SAFETIES (S) Safeties Tracy Walker and Tavon Wilson led the team in tackles last year. They both played close to 75% of the snaps and obtained similar marks from PFF. They finished 22nd and 26th out of 87 safeties in the league. As of now, Wilson has yet to sign with a NFL team. He is open to re-signing with Detroit, but that has yet to happen. The team decided to upgrade the position by acquiring Duron Harmon, yet another ex-Patriot. He can play safety or as a corner; he is likely to be on the field often. He may not be the best against the run, but his skills in coverage are way above average. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE There’s been a lot of shuffling with this unit during the offseason. The biggest acquisitions are Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon, as well as #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. The biggest losses are Damon Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson, Devon Kennard, Darius Slay and Rashaan Melvin. My own assessment of those moves is a moderate upgrade. However, I value continuity as a key factor in the NFL. Knowing how your teammates are going to react in game-time situations is important in such a fast sport like the NFL. Considering the impact of COVID-19 on offseason preparation, having numerous new faces will likely penalize offenses/defenses even more. Detroit’s defense finished 26th in points allowed last year. They will remain the team’s Achilles heel, but a significant improvement is doable. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate upgrade MOST LIKELY RECORD: 7-9 (based on the one-million simulated seasons using BetOnline’s 2020 point spreads) Tomorrow, I'll discuss the team whose ROI is 30th in the league; the New Orleans Saints! Thanks for reading, I hope you found it insightful! Professor MJ
Looking at our 2020 games what is everyone's prediction on our W/L record? I would love to see the Chargers have a winning season, but when you look at the schedule on a game by game level, coming out with a scenario that has the Chargers competing for a playoff spot is fairly difficult. We just went 0-6 in the division and KC has owned this division and I don't see that ending so we go 0-2 vs. them. I hope we split games with the Raiders/Broncos that both improved a lot in the off-season. I think the Falcons and Jets are winnable games. Carolina is clearly rebuilding, especially on defense, so that game should be winnable. Patriots don't have Brady, but they have had our number for a while so until we win, i'm calling that a L. Jags are tanking so a W. Bills is the upset game we win every year randomly like the Packers last year. Bucs have Brady and i'm not betting against him yet. Dolphins improved a lot but are still rebuilding so I'm calling this a W. The Saints are a playoff level team so I think this is an L. Bengals are rebuilding so a W. This is 9-7, which might be enough for a WC, but this might be a little hopeful. I just hope we don't get shut out in the division again. What is everyone else's prediction? Home Games Denver Broncos- W Kansas City Chiefs- L Las Vegas Raiders- W Atlanta Falcons- W New York Jets- W Carolina Panthers- W New England Patriots- L Jacksonville Jaguars-W Away Games Denver Broncos- L Kansas City Chiefs- L Las Vegas Raiders- L Buffalo Bills- W Tampa Bay Buccaneers-L Miami Dolphins- W New Orleans Saints- L Cincinnati Bengals- W
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday! If you don’t want to hangout in nfl for the Super Bowl, you can chill here and watch the game with Broncos Country! Here is everything you need to know about the big game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
TV: FOX at 4:30 p.m. MT
Line: KC -1.5 · O/U: 54
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami
Super Bowl Notes
This is the first Super Bowl appearance for the Chiefs in 50 years. The last time Kansas City made it this far, it was Jan. 11, 1970, when the Chiefs topped the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV for their first -- and only -- Lombardi Trophy.
This is the 49ers' seventh Super Bowl appearance. San Francisco went to five Super Bowls between 1981-1994 and won all five of them, then returned to the big game in 2012, when they lost to the Baltimore Ravens.
If the Niners win Super Bowl LIV, they will tie the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl victories in NFL history (6).
If the Chiefs win Super Bowl LIV, they will end the second-longest Lombardi Trophy drought among teams that have already won a Super Bowl. Nine different franchises have yet to win a single Super Bowl, but among teams that have done so, only the New York Jets (51 years) have endured a longer stretch in between titles.
49ers have 17 connections to Colorado or the Broncos including Emmanuel Sanders, Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch, Ben Garland, Bobby Turner, Wes Welker, Jon Embree, Joe Woods and Adam Peters.
Chiefs have six connections to Colorado or the Broncos including Eric Bieniemy and Kyle Shurmur.
Super Bowl LIV will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. This is the sixth Super Bowl to take place at the stadium, although the venue has had a different name for almost every championship -- Sun Life Stadium (XLIV, 2010), Dolphin Stadium (XLI, 2007), Pro Player Stadium (XXXIII, 1999), Joe Robbie Stadium (XXIX, 1995). This will be the 11th time a Super Bowl has been played in South Florida.
Bill Vinovich will serve as the game's head referee. The Chiefs are 10-6 in games when he's been part of the officiating crew, while the 49ers are 6-6 | Super Bowl LIV officiating guide
Multi-platinum singer and songwriter Demi Lovato will sing the national anthem ahead of Super Bowl LIV.
Reminder: Regardless of what happens today, DO NOT go into another team’s sub to troll or talk shit. You will be banned from here if that happens. Please do not engage with trolls that come in here, and just report them to the mods.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) (O/U 45.5)
Phillip Lindsay has carried the ball 372 times without a fumble since 2018 -- tied for best of 33 qualified NFL RBs.
Drew Lock has completed passes for 20+ yards on 3 of his 11 total passing attempts (27.3%) when under pressure since Week 11 -- best of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 7.9%
Noah Fant has averaged 10.4 yards after the catch since Week 7 -- best of 44 qualified NFL TEs; League Avg: 4.7
Tyreek Hill has had an average separation of 2.13 yards per target -- second-most in NFL.
Travis Kelce has 658 air yards this season -- most amongst TEs.
Travis Kelce has 16 red-zone targets -- most amongst TEs.
The Chiefs defense has averaged 2.33 interceptions per game since Week 11 -- best in NFL.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of just 60.9 (119 Pass Attempts) since Week 11 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 88.9
The Broncos are averaging 18.2 PPG this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 21.6 PPG overall this season but just 14 PPG over their last three games.
The Chiefs are averaging 28.5 PPG this season.
The Broncos have allowed 20.1 PPG this season.
The Broncos are 8-5 ATS this season. They're 4-3 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS as the underdog. The OVER has hit in four of their last five games. The UNDER (49.5) hit when these teams met earlier this season.
The Chiefs are 8-5 ATS this season. They're 3-3 ATS at home and 6-4 ATS as the favorite. They're 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Broncos. The UNDER has hit in each of their last three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (O/U 46.5)
Jameis Winston has thrown 37 interceptable passes this season -- most in NFL.
Buccaneers WRs have 19 receptions for 20+ yards since Week 11 -- most in NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 27 of 142 rushing attempts (19.0% TFL%) since Week 7 -- second-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has forced 7 fumbles since Week 11 -- most in NFL.
The Buccaneers have committed 19 turnovers since Week 7 -- most in NFL.
Kenny Golladay has seen 14 end-zone targets this season -- tied for second-most amongst WRs.
Lions WRs have caught 15 touchdown passes since Week 7 -- most in NFL.
The Lions defense has allowed 20 TD passes since Week 7 -- most in NFL.
The Lions defense has five interceptions this season -- tied for fewest in NFL.
The Bucs are averaging 29.1 PPG -- third-most in NFL.
The Lions have allowed 25.8 PPG this season.
The Lions are averaging 22.1 PPG overall this season but just 14.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bucs have allowed 29.3 PPG -- second-most in NFL.
The Bucs are 4-8-1 ATS this season. They're 4-3 ATS on the road and 1-3-1 ATS as the favorite. The OVER has hit in 10 of their 13 games this season.
The Lions are 5-8 ATS this season. They're 3-3 ATS at home and 5-5 ATS as the underdog. The UNDER has hit in three of their last five games.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) (O/U 51)
DeAndre Hopkins has broken 8 tackles this season -- tied for most among NFL WRs.
The Texans' secondary have missed 60 tackles on 298 opportunities (20.1%) this season -- highest in NFL.
The Texans defense has allowed 4.7 yards per attempt in the red zone this season -- highest in NFL.
The Texans defense allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 27 attempts (25.9%) last week -- tied for highest in NFL.
Ryan Tannehill has a 53.1% pressured completion percentage this season -- highest in NFL.
Ryan Tannehill has a 69.2% red zone completion percentage this season -- highest in NFL.
Derrick Henry has created 538 yards this season -- most in NFL.
The Texans defense has allowed 169.0 rushing yards per game since Week 11 -- second-most in NFL.
Jonnu Smith has a 85.7% contested catch rate (six-of-seven targets) -- second-highest amongst TEs.
The Texans are averaging 24.4 PPG this season.
The Titans have allowed 19.6 PPG this season.
The Titans are averaging 24.5 PPG overall this season and 38.3 PPG over their last three games (most in NFL).
The Texans have allowed 23.8 PPG this season.
The Texans are 6-7 ATS this season. They're 3-2 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as the underdog. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Titans. The OVER has hit in each of their last two games. The UNDER hit in four of their last six.
The Titans are 7-5-2 ATS this season. They're 3-2-1 ATS at home and 4-3-1 ATS as the favorite. The OVER has hit in each of their last seven games.
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5) (O/U 46.5)
The Dolphins defense has allowed 11 TD passes since Week 11 -- second-most in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged just 2.7 yards per carry since Week 7 -- lowest in NFL.
The Dolphins have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 20.8% of dropbacks this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 14.3%
The Dolphins have allowed a QB hit on 14.9% of dropbacks this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 8.9%
Giants QBs have fumbled 13 times since Week 7-- most in NFL.
Giants RBs have 34 receiving yards since Week 11 -- fewest in NFL.
The Giants ran no plays in their opponent's territory in the second half last week.
The Dolphins are averaging 17 PPG overall this season (third-fewest) but are averaging 27.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants have allowed 27.8 PPG this season -- fifth-most.
The Giants are averaging 19 PPG overall this season but just 14.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins have allowed 30.7 PPG this season -- most in NFL.
The Dolphins are 7-6 ATS this season and have been the underdog in every game. They're 4-2 ATS on the road. The OVER has hit in four of their last six games.
The Giants are 5-8 ATS this season. They're 1-5 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as the favorite. The OVER has hit in four of their last six games.
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Carolina Panthers (O/U 48)
D.K. Metcalf has 14 end-zone targets this season -- tied for second-most amongst WRs.
The Seahawks have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 22.8% of dropbacks in the red zone this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 12.8%
Russell Wilson has targeted receivers at an average depth of 11.2 yards since Week 11 -- highest of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 8.1
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 140.2 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 11 -- most amongst RBs.
Kyle Allen has a 19.1% deep ball completion percentage this season -- lowest in NFL.
The Panthers defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 6 of 23 attempts (26.1%) when they have pressured the QB since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.9%
The Panthers defense has allowed a passer rating of 108.7 when they have pressured the QB (32 Pass Attempts) since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 55.0
The Panthers defense has allowed 6.0 yards per carry since Week 7 -- highest in NFL.
The Seahawks are averaging 26.2 PPG overall this season but just 22 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers have allowed 27.7 PPG overall this season and 34.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers are averaging 23.1 PPG this season.
The Seahawks have allowed 24.7 PPG this season.
The Seahawks are 7-6 ATS this season. They're 5-2 ATS on the road and 4-5 ATS as the favorite. They're 4-3 ATS in their last seven games against the Panthers. The UNDER has hit in two of their last three games. The OVER has hit in three of their last five. The OVER has hit in each of their last five games against the Panthers.
The Panthers are 6-7 ATS this season. They're 2-4 ATS at home and 3-4 ATS as the underdog. The OVER has hit in each of their last three games and nine of 13 games this season.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) (O/U 40.5)
Allen Robinson has 19 contested catches this season -- most amongst WRs.
Bears WRs have been targeted 16 times in the red zone since Week 11 -- most in NFL.
Bears RBs have not rushed for any TDs on 84 carries since Week 11 -- tied for highest Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 38.8
Kyle Fuller (CHI) has 802 receiving yards against him this season -- most among NFL defensive backs.
Aaron Rodgers has not been intercepted (222 pass attempts) since Week 7 -- best amongst QBs.
Blake Martinez (GB) has missed 18 tackles this season -- tied for second-most among NFL linebackers.
The Packers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 58 rushing attempts (1.7% TFL%) in the red zone this season. -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 13.7%
Aaron Jones averaged 4.4 yards after contact per carry last week -- second-best of 34 qualified NFL RBs.
The Bears are averaging 18.7 PPG overall this season but have averaged 24.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Packers have allowed 20.8 PPG this season.
The Packers are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season and 26.3 PPG at home.
The Bears have allowed 17.8 PPG this season -- fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Bears are 4-9 ATS this season (tied for worst in the league). They're 1-4 ATS on the road and 2-2 ATS as the underdog. The OVER has hit in each of their last two games. The UNDER has hit in five of their last seven games. The UNDER has hit in each of their last two games against the Packers.
The Packers are 8-5 ATS this season. They're 4-3 ATS at home and 6-4 ATS as the favorite. The UNDER has hit in four of their last five games.
New England Patriots (-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 40.5)
Tom Brady has 91 red-zone attempts this season -- most in NFL by 20 attempts.
Julian Edelman has seen 22 red-zone targets this season -- most amongst WRs.
James White has seen a light box on 84.7% of his carries this season -- highest in NFL.
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 59.7 this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 91.2
The Patriots defense has allowed a completion percentage of just 56.1% this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 63.9%
Andy Dalton has completed just 47.4% of passes against the blitz this season -- lowest of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 59.2%
The Bengals defense has allowed two touchdowns on 77 completions (38.5 Completions Per TD) since Week 11 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2
The Bengals defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 34 of 213 attempts (16.0%) since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 9.4%
The Bengals defense has allowed 6.9 yards after the catch this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3
The Patriots are averaging 26 PPG overall this season but just 17 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals have allowed 25 PPG overall this season but just 16.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals are averaging 15.2 PPG this season -- second-fewest in NFL.
The Patriots have allowed 12.9 PPG overall this season (fewest in NFL) but have allowed 20 PPG over their last three games.
The Patriots are 7-6 ATS this season and have been the favorite in every game. They're 4-3 ATS on the road and 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The UNDER has hit in three of their last four games and nine-of-13 games this season.
The Bengals are 5-8 ATS this season. They're 1-5 ATS at home, 5-6 ATS as the underdog, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The UNDER has hit in six of their last eight games.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Washington Redskins (O/U 39)
Carson Wentz has not been intercepted in the red zone this season -- tied for best of 33 qualified NFL QBs.
Zach Ertz has eight contested catches this season -- second-most amongst TEs.
Ronald Darby (PHI) has 372 receiving yards against him since Week 11 -- most among NFL defensive backs.
The Eagles defense has forced three and outs on 28.8% of opponent drives this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 20.9%
Redskins WRs have just one touchdown on 64 receptions since Week 7 -- highest receptions per TD rate in NFL.
The Redskins defense has sacked opposing QBs on 24.1% of pass attempts in the red zone since Week 7 -- best in NFL.
The Redskins have been sacked on 14.4% of pass attempts since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 7.2%
The Redskins have run 708 plays this season -- fewest in NFL.
The Eagles are averaging 22.8 PPG this season.
The Redskins have allowed 23.8 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Redskins are averaging 14.5 PPG overall this season (fewest in NFL) and 21 PPG over their last three games.
The Eagles have allowed 23.2 PPG overall this season and 29.3 PPG on the road (third-most in NFL).
The Eagles are 4-9 ATS this season (tied for worst in NFL). They're 2-4 ATS on the road, 2-5 ATS as the favorite, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The UNDER has hit in four of their last five games.
The Redskins are 6-7 ATS this season. They're 2-4 ATS at home, 6-5 ATS as the underdog, and 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They're 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Eagles. The UNDER has hit in eight of their last 10 games.
Cleveland Browns (-3) at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 48)
Nick Chubb has evaded 80 tackles this season -- most in NFL.
Baker Mayfield has completed just 39.0% of passes in the red zone this season -- lowest of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 55.0%
The Browns defense has eight interceptions since Week 11 -- tied for most in NFL.
The Browns' secondary has missed 57 tackles this season -- second-most in NFL.
The Cardinals defense has allowed opponents to catch 83 of 105 passes (79.0% Reception Pct) since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 65.3%
The Cardinals defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 93.3% (14 completions/15 attempts) on 3rd and long since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 54.3%
The Cardinals defense has allowed a passer rating of 113.9 this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 91.2
The Cardinals defense has allowed 32 TD passes this season -- most in NFL.
Cardinals WRs have been targeted 5.0 times per game in the red zone since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.4
Kyler Murray has not thrown any TDs on 50 pass attempts when scrambling this season -- tied for highest pass attempts per TD rate of 33 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 23.5 attempts per TD
The Browns are averaging 21 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG over their last three games.
The Cardinals have allowed 28.8 PPG this season -- third-most in NFL.
The Cardinals are averaging 20.9 PPG overall this season but just 16.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Browns have allowed 22.4 PPG this season.
The Browns are 5-7-1 ATS this season. They're 2-4 ATS on the road, 4-4-1 ATS as the favorite, and 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The OVER has hit in two of their last three games.
The Cardinals are 7-5-1 ATS this season. They're 3-4 ATS at home, 7-4-1 ATS as the underdog, and 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The UNDER has hit in each of their last two games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5) (O/U 45)
The Jaguars defense has allowed 14.7 yards per completion since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.4
The Jaguars defense has allowed 16.7 yards after the catch on 3rd and long since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.3
The Jaguars defense has allowed 190.0 rushing yards per game since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 113.4
Leonard Fournette has averaged 3.1 yards after contact per carry this season -- second-best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.2
Derek Carr has an 89.9% protection rate this season -- highest in NFL.
Darren Waller has nine contested catches this season -- most amongst TEs.
The Raiders defense has allowed 14.1 yards per completion since Week 7 -- tied for highest in NFL.
The Raiders defense has allowed 40 receptions for 20+ yards since Week 7 -- most in NFL.
The Raiders defensive line has missed 13 tackles on 26 opportunities (50.0%) in the red zone this season -- tied for 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 20.9%
The Jaguars are averaging 17.7 PPG overall this season (fifth-fewest) but just 13.7 PPG over their last three games (second-fewest).
The Raiders have allowed 28.2 PPG overall this season (fourth-most) and 38.7 PPG over their last three games (most in NFL).
The Raiders are averaging 19.8 PPG overall this season but just 11 PPG over their last three games (fewest in NFL).
The Jaguars have allowed 25.9 PPG overall this season and 38.3 PPG over their last three games (second-most).
The Jaguars are 5-8 ATS this season. They're 3-3 ATS on the road, 3-6 ATS as the underdog, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The OVER has hit in four of their last six games.
The Raiders are 6-7 ATS this season. They're 3-3 ATS at home, 1-2 ATS as the favorite, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The UNDER has hit in three of their last four games.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 45.5)
Kirk Cousins' targets have had an average separation of 1.96 yards per target -- second-most in NFL.
Dalvin Cook has evaded 79 tackles this season -- second-most in NFL.
Vikings RBs have averaged 10.5 yards after the catch this season -- best in NFL.
Vikings WRs have averaged 10.5 yards per target this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 8.1
Mike Williams has averaged nine air yards per target -- most in NFL.
Mike Williams has averaged 25.6 yards per reception since Week 7 -- best of 67 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 13.4
Hunter Henry has seen 7.5 air yards per target this season -- most amongst TEs.
Austin Ekeler has averaged 16.9 yards per reception since Week 11 -- best of 38 qualified NFL RBs
Chargers RBs have gained 988 yards after the catch this season -- most in NFL.
The Chargers defense has allowed just 7.9 yards per completion since Week 11 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 11.4
The Vikings are averaging 26.1 PPG this season.
The Chargers have allowed 19.3 PPG this season.
The Chargers are averaging 22.2 PPG overall this season and 27.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Vikings have allowed 19.2 PPG overall this season and 23.4 PPG on the road.
The Vikings are 7-6 ATS this season. They're 3-4 ATS on the road, 6-4 ATS as the favorite, and 2-4 ATS in their last six games. The OVER has hit in six of their last eight games.
The Chargers are 4-7-2 ATS this season. They're 1-3-1 ATS at home, 2-1-1 ATS as the underdog, and 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The OVER has hit in three of their last four games.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) (O/U 47.5)
Austin Hooper has averaged 2.1 yards of separation per target -- second-most amongst TEs.
Falcons WRs have averaged 256.8 receiving yards per game since Week 11 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 155.3
The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs 87 times this season -- second-fewest in NFL.
Matt Ryan has been sacked 19 times since Week 11 -- second-most among NFL QBs.
Jimmy Garoppolo has a 53.3% deep ball completion percentage this season -- highest in NFL.
Jimmy Garoppolo's targets have dropped 31 passes this season -- most in NFL.
Raheem Mostert has averaged 4.7 yards before contact per carry since Week 11 -- best of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
Raheem Mostert has averaged 6.3 yards per carry since Week 7 -- best of 34 qualified NFL RBs.
The 49ers defense has allowed -2.3 yards per attempt (-160 yards/70 attempts) on plays where they have pressured the QB this season -- best in NFL.
The 49ers defense has allowed 150.8 passing yards per game this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 235.7
The Falcons are averaging 23.1 PPG overall this season and 26 PPG on the road.
The 49ers have allowed 17.6 PPG overall this season -- third-fewest in NFL.
The 49ers are averaging 30.5 PPG overall this season (second-most) and 34 PPG over their last three games.
The Falcons have allowed 26.4 PPG this season.
The Falcons are 5-8 ATS this season. They're 2-4 ATS on the road, 4-5 ATS as the underdog, and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. The UNDER has hit in five of their last seven games.
The 49ers are 8-4-1 ATS this season. They're 3-2-1 ATS at home, 3-4-1 ATS as the favorite, and 3-0 ATS in their last three games. The OVER has hit in five of their last seven games.
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 49)
Tyler Higbee has 13 red-zone targets -- tied for third-most amongst TEs.
The Rams defense has hurried opposing QBs on 14.6% of dropbacks this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 10.1%
Rams RBs have gained 213 yards after the catch this season -- fewest in NFL.
Jared Goff has completed passes for 20+ yards on 23 of his 129 total passing attempts (17.8%) since Week 11 -- best of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9.2%
The Cowboys secondary has missed 20 tackles on 73 opportunities (27.4%) since Week 11 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 15.2%
Michael Gallup has dropped 8 balls this season -- tied for second-most among NFL WRs
The Cowboys defense has stuffed 28 rushing attempts since Week 11 -- most in NFL.
Cowboys WRs have 26 receptions for 20+ yards since Week 7 -- tied for second-most in NFL.
The Rams are averaging 23.9 PPG overall this season and 26.6 PPG on the road.
The Cowboys have allowed 20.5 PPG this season.
The Cowboys are averaging 25.7 PPG overall this season but just 16 PPG over their last three games.
The Rams have allowed 20.2 PPG overall this season but just 16.3 PPG on the road.
The Rams are 9-4 ATS this season (tied for best in NFL). They're 5-1 ATS on the road, 8-3 ATS as the favorite, and 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The UNDER has hit in seven of their last eight games.
The Cowboys are 7-6 ATS this season. They're 3-3 ATS at home, 1-0 ATS as the underdog, and 1-2 ATS in their last three games. The OVER has hit in four of their last six games.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) (O/U 36)
Josh Allen has a 73.7% protection rate this season -- second-lowest in NFL.
Josh Allen has a 17.2% pressured completion percentage this season -- lowest in NFL.
Devin Singletary has created 1.87 yards per attempt this season -- second-most in NFL.
John Brown has a 75% contested catch rate this season (six-of-eight targets) -- highest in NFL.
Diontae Johnson has had an average separation of 2.61 yards per target -- most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed five rushing TDs this season -- tied for fewest in NFL.
The Steelers defense has forced 32 turnovers this season -- most in NFL.
The Bills are averaging 21.1 PPG this season.
The Steelers have allowed 18.6 PPG overall this season and just 13.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Steelers are averaging 19.9 PPG overall this season and 23.7 PPG at home.
The Bills have allowed 16.3 PPG this season -- second-fewest in NFL.
The Bills are 8-4-1 ATS this season. They're 5-0-1 ATS on the road, 4-1-1 ATS as the underdog, and 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The UNDER has hit in each of their last three games and five of their last six.
The Steelers are 9-4 ATS this season (tied for best in NFL). They're 5-2 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS as the favorite, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games. The UNDER has hit in each of their last five games.
This is the lowest O/U total of the season for both teams.
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5) (O/U 46.5)
Colts RBs have carried the ball 335 times without a fumble this season -- tied for best in NFL.
Colts WRs have caught 14 touchdown passes in the red zone this season -- most in NFL.
Jacoby Brissett has completed passes for 20+ yards on just 20 of his 288 total passing attempts (6.9%) when not under pressure this season -- tied for lowest of 26 qualified NFL QBs.
Jacoby Brissett has been pressured on 28.4% of dropbacks since Week 7 -- highest of 26 qualified NFL QBs
Drew Brees' targets have had an average separation of 1.18 yards per target -- lowest in NFL.
Michael Thomas has seen 20 red-zone targets this season -- second-most amongst WRs.
The Saints defense has allowed 12 TD passes since Week 11 -- most in NFL.
Alvin Kamara has 6.2 receptions per game this season -- second-best of 38 qualified NFL RBs.
The Colts are averaging 22.8 PPG this season.
The Saints have allowed 22.8 PPG this season.
The Saints are averaging 26.5 PPG overall this season and 35.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts have allowed 22.7 PPG overall this season and 29.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts are 6-5-2 ATS this season. They-re 3-1-2 ATS on the road, 3-2-2 ATS as the underdog, and 1-2 ATS in their last three games. The OVER has hit in three of their last four games.
The Saints are 8-5 ATS this season. They're 3-4 ATS at home, 4-4 ATS as the favorite, and 2-2 ATS in their last four games. The OVER has hit in three of their last four games.
Hey all! Here are the matchup notes for this week pulled from the weekly NFL pick'em article at FantasyData.com. These notes include betting info as well which can be useful for fantasy purposes. Good luck through the playoffs or in your DFS ventures this week!
Dak Prescott has been sacked just once on 83 pass attempts against the blitz this season -- best among NFL QBs.
Dak Prescott has completed passes for 20+ yards on 12 of his 56 total passing attempts (21.4%) when under pressure this season -- best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 9.0%
Ezekiel Elliott totaled 240 yards from scrimmage and one TD in one game against the Lions last season.
Amari Cooper has averaged 134.6 yards from scrimmage per game (673 yards / 5 games) on the road this season -- best of 105 qualified NFL WRs
Marvin Jones hasn't topped 56 yards and has no TDs in three career games against the Cowboys.
Lions WRs have caught 10 touchdown passes since Week 7 -- most in NFL.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of 128.7 since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 93.7
The Lions defense has allowed 13 TD passes since Week 7 -- tied for most in NFL.
The Cowboys are averaging 27.9 PPG overall this season (sixth-most) but just 25 PPG on the road. They've averaged 32.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Lions have allowed 26.3 PPG this season.
The Lions are averaging 24.1 PPG this season.
The Cowboys have allowed 18.9 PPG this season -- sixth-fewest in NFL.
The Cowboys are 5-4 ATS this season. The over has hit in six-of-nine games this season and three-of-four road games.
The Lions are 4-5 ATS this season. They're 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The over has hit in six-of-nine games this season and three-of-four home games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Leonard Fournette has scored three TDs in two career games against the Colts.
Leonard Fournette has averaged 3.6 yards after contact per carry this season-best of 32 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.2
Jaguars WRs have averaged 7.3 yards after the catch since Week 7 -- 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 4.5
The Jaguars defense has hit opposing QBs on 13.3% of dropbacks since Week 7 -- 3rd best in NFL; League Avg: 8.9%
The Jaguars defensive line has missed 31 tackles this season -- 2nd most in NFL
Colts WRs have caught 12 touchdown passes in the red zone this season -- most in NFL
Marlon Mack hasn't topped 46 rushing yards and has no TDs in four career games against the Jags.
The Colts defense has allowed 2 touchdowns on 90 completions (45.0 Completions Per TD) since week 7 -- 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 13.6
The Colts are 1-3 in their last four games against the Jags and have been shut out twice in that span.
The Jaguars are averaging 19.6 PPG this season.
The Colts have allowed 21.4 PPG this season.
The Colts are averaging 21.6 PPG this season.
The Jaguars have allowed 21 PPG this season.
The Jaguars are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS on the road this season. The under has hit in five-of-nine games this season.
The Colts are 4-4-1 ATS this season. They're 2-3 ATS both at home and as a favorite this season. The over has hit in five-of-nine games this season.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen has a 7-3 TD/INT ratio in three career games against the Dolphins.
The Bills defensive line has missed 33 tackles on 87 opportunities (37.9%) this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 18.7%
The Bills defense has allowed an average of 2.9 yards after contact per carry this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick has gained 70.3% of his total passing yards through the air against the blitz this season -- highest of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 53.3%
Kalen Ballage has averaged 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch since Week 7 -- lowest of 44 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 4.8
The Dolphins have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 20.6% of dropbacks this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 14.1%
The Bills are 4-1 in their last five games against the Dolphins.
The Bills are averaging 19.3 PPG this season.
The Dolphins have allowed 29.8 PPG overall this season (second-most) but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins are averaging 13.2 PPG this season (second-fewest) but have averaged 18.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Bills have allowed 16.7 PPG this season (third-fewest) and just 14 PPG on the road.
The Bills are 5-3-1 ATS this season. They're 3-0-1 ATS on the road this season but just 2-3 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The under has hit in seven-of-nine games.
The Dolphins are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games. The under has hit in six-of-nine games.
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
Phillip Lindsay has averaged 3.9 yards before contact per carry (34 carries) since Week 7 -- 2nd best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
Broncos WRs have been targeted once in the red zone since Week 7 -- 2nd fewest in NFL
The Broncos defense has allowed 7 TD passes this season -- tied for 2nd fewest in NFL.
Xavier Rhodes has allowed receptions to receivers he was covering on 18 of 20 targets (90.0%) since Week 7 -- highest of 51 qualified NFL defensive backs; League Avg: 63.1%
Dalvin Cook has averaged 154.8 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 7 -- best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 41.3
The Vikings have run the ball on 50.3% of plays this season -- 3rd highest in NFL; League Avg: 39.9%
Stefon Diggs has averaged 12.8 yards per target this season -- best of 67 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 8.2
The Broncos have won their last three games against the Vikings.
The Broncos are averaging 16.6 PPG this season.
The Vikings have allowed 18.2 PPG this season (fifth-lowest) and just 13.8 PPG at home.
The Vikings are averaging 26.2 PPG overall this season and 29.8 PPG at home.
The Broncos have allowed 18.9 PPG this season -- tied for sixth-fewest.
The Broncos are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 4-2 ATS this season as the underdog and 2-2 ATS on the road. The under has hit in six-of-nine games this season and three-of-four road games. It has also hit in four-of-six games as the underdog.
The Vikings are 6-4 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS at home and 5-3 ATS as the favorite.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Drew Brees has just six passing TDs in his last six games at Tampa Bay.
Drew Brees has completed 88.2% of passes against the blitz this season -- best of NFL QBs. The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 30.2% of plays this season -- 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 17.2%
Alvin Kamara has six TDs in five career games against the Bucs but just one TD in two career games at Tampa Bay.
Michael Thomas has at least 94 receiving yards in five-of-six career games against the Bucs with 180 yards or more twice.
Jameis Winston has thrown less than two TDs in five-of-eight career games against the Saints.
Mike Evans has had three targets and no receptions in two-of-five career home games against the Saints. He's been held to 55 yards or less in seven-of-10 career games against them.
Chris Godwin has four TDs in five career games against the Saints.
The Buccaneers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 58 rushing attempts (25.9% TFL%) since Week 7. -- 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 12.6%
The Saints are 4-2 in their last six games against the Bucs.
The Saints are averaging 22.7 PPG this season.
The Bucs have allowed 31 PPG this season -- most in NFL.
The Bucs are averaging 28.9 PPG this season -- third-most in NFL.
The Saints have allowed 20.2 PPG this season.
The Saints are 6-3 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. The under has hit in three of their last four games.
The Bucs are 2-7 ATS this season. They're 0-3 ATS at home and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The over has hit in each of their last seven games.
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
The Redskins are 8-3 all-time against the Jets.
Sam Darnold has a passer rating of just 22.2 against the blitz (48 Pass Attempts) since Week 7 -- lowest of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 90.1
The Jets defense has tackled opponents for a loss on 30 of 101 rushing attempts (29.7% TFL%) since week 7. -- best in NFL; League Avg: 12.6%
The Jets have allowed a QB Hit on 14.3% of dropbacks this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 8.6%
The Jets have gone three and out on 33.9% of their drives this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 20.6%
The Redskins defense has allowed just one passing TD (67 pass attempts) since Week 7 -- tied for best in NFL
The Redskins defense has allowed opponents to catch 24 of 30 passes (80.0% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 59.8%
The Redskins have run an average of 43.7 of plays per game since Week 7 -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 63.3
The Jets are averaging 14.4 PPG this season -- third-fewest in NFL.
The Redskins have allowed 24.3 PPG this season.
The Redskins are averaging 12 PPG this season -- fewest in NFL.
The Jets have allowed 26.4 PPG overall this season and 29 PPG on the road.
The Jets are 3-6 ATS this season. They're 1-3 ATS on the road this season and 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The over has hit in four of their last five games.
The Redskins are 3-6 ATS this season. They're 1-3 ATS at home this season and 2-1 ATS in their last three games. The under has hit in each of their last six games.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
The Falcons are 6-1 in their last seven games against the Panthers.
Falcons WRs have no touchdowns on 49 receptions since Week 7 -- tied for highest Reception per TD rate in NFL
The Falcons defense has intercepted 2 of 296 attempts (148.0 pass attempts per int.) this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 45.7
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 153.9 yards from scrimmage per game this season-best of NFL RBs
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 5.3 yards before contact per carry (58 carries) since Week 7 -- best of 35 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
The Panthers defense has allowed 6.3 yards per carry since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 4.4
The Falcons are averaging 21.2 PPG overall this season and 25.4 PPG on the road.
The Panthers have allowed 25.3 PPG this season.
The Panthers are averaging 25 PPG this season.
The Falcons have allowed 28.8 PPG this season -- fourth-most in NFL.
The Falcons are 3-6 ATS this season. They're 1-4 ATS on the road (worst in NFL) and 3-4 ATS as underdogs. The under has hit in six of their nine games this season and each of their last three.
The Panthers are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The over has hit in four of their last five games.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
The Ravens are 8-2 all-time against the Texans
Deshaun Watson has completed 70.2% of passes this season -- 2nd best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 64.5%
Carlos Hyde has broken 11 tackles since Week 7 -- tied for 3rd most among NFL RBs
Texans TEs have caught 8 touchdown passes this season -- most in NFL
The Texans secondary has missed 44 tackles this season -- most in NFL
The Texans defense has allowed 1,350 yards after the catch this season -- 2nd most in NFL
The Texans defense has allowed 3 rushing TDs this season -- 2nd fewest in NFL
The Ravens have thrown the ball 38.9% of the time since Week 7 -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54.3%
Ravens RBs have been targeted 28 times this season -- fewest in NFL
The Ravens defense has blitzed on 31.2% of plays this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 17.2%
The Texans are averaging 26.4 PPG this season.
The Ravens have allowed 21 PPG this season.
The Ravens are averaging 33.3 PPG this season (most in NFL) and 38.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Texans have allowed 21.2 PPG this season.
The Texans are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS as underdogs. The under has hit in each of their last two games.
The Ravens are 4-5 ATS this season. They're 1-3 ATS at home and 2-4 ATS as favorites. The over has hit in six of their nine games this season.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
Larry Fitzgerald has been targeted at an average depth of 4.5 yards since Week 7 -- lowest of 67 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 11.1
Cardinals linebackers have missed 16 tackles since Week 7 -- most in NFL
The Cardinals defense has allowed 263 completions this season -- most in NFL
The Cardinals defense has allowed 25 TD passes this season -- most in NFL
The 49ers are 2-8 in their last 10 games against the Cardinals and 0-4 in their last four home games against them.
The 49ers have thrown the ball 44.0% of the time this season -- 2nd lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55.0%
49ers RBs have averaged 150.0 rushing yards per game this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 92.0
The 49ers defense has allowed 143.8 passing yards per game this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 238.2
The 49ers defense has sacked opposing QBs on 14.4% of pass attempts since Week 7 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4%
The Cardinals are averaging 22.2 PPG this season.
The 49ers have allowed 14.3 PPG this season -- second-fewest in NFL.
The 49ers are averaging 28.8 PPG this season -- fourth-most in NFL.
The Cardinals have allowed 28.1 PPG this season.
The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS this season (tied for best in NFL). They're 4-1 ATS on the road and 7-2 ATS as underdogs. The over has hit in four of their last six games.
The 49ers are 5-4 ATS this season. They're 2-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-2 ATS as double-digit favorites. The over has hit in each of their last three games.
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-11.5)
The Bengals are 4-1 in their last five games against the Raiders.
The Bengals defense has allowed 17.4 yards per completion since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.4
The Bengals defense has allowed 8.8 yards after the catch since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3
Opponents have run the ball against the Bengals defense on 50.3% of plays this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 39.9%
Josh Jacobs has averaged 4.7 touches per game in the red zone this season -- tied for highest of 44 qualified NFL RBs
The Raiders defense has allowed 24 TD passes this season -- 2nd most in NFL
The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of 138.8 when blitzing (51 Pass Attempts) this season -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 89.8
The Raiders defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 24 of 142 attempts (16.9%) since Week 7 -- 2nd highest in NFL; League Avg: 9.5%
The Bengals are averaging 15.2 PPG this season -- fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Raiders have allowed 26.7 PPG this season.
The Raiders are averaging 23.1 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals have allowed 28.8 PPG overall this season and 33.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals are 3-6 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS on the road this season and 3-4 ATS as underdogs. The under has hit in three of their last four games.
The Raiders are 6-3 ATS this season. They're 3-1 ATS at home this season and 1-0 as a favorite. The over has hit in six of their last seven games.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Patriots WRs have been targeted 5.7 times per game in the red zone since Week 7 -- highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.7
The Patriots defense has averaged a turnover percentage of 5.0% this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.2%
The Patriots defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54.1% this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 64.5%
Carson Wentz has completed 62.5% of passes when scrambling this season -- best of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 39.9%
Eagles RBs have fumbled 6 times this season -- 2nd most in NFL
Eagles RBs have averaged 4.0 yards before contact per carry (10 carries) in the red zone since Week 7 -- best in NFL
Eagles WRs have been targeted 36 times since Week 7 -- 2nd fewest in NFL
Eagles WRs have averaged 1.0 yards after the catch since Week 7 -- lowest in NFL; League Avg: 4.5
The Patriots are averaging 30 PPG this season -- second-most in NFL.
The Eagles have allowed 23.7 PPG overall this season but just 18.5 PPG at home.
The Eagles are averaging 24.9 PPG overall this season and 27.2 PPG at home.
The Patriots have allowed 10.9 PPG this season -- fewest in NFL.
The Patriots are 6-3 ATS this season. They're 3-2 ATS on the road. The under has hit in six of their nine games this season.
The Eagles are 4-5 ATS this season. They've covered the spread in each of their last two games.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
The Bears are 6-1 in their last seven games against the Rams.
Mitchell Trubisky has averaged just 8.9 yards per completion when not under pressure this season -- lowest of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 11.2
Bears RBs have averaged 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season -- tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
The Bears defense has allowed an average of 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season -- best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
Rams WRs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception since Week 7 -- best in NFL; League Avg: 13.2
Rams RBs have gained 110 yards after the catch this season -- fewest in NFL
The Rams defense has pressured opposing QBs on 21.0% of dropbacks since Week 7 -- 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 13.9%
The Bears are averaging 18 PPG this season.
The Rams have allowed 21.2 PPG overall this season and 28 PPG at home.
The Rams are averaging 25.1 PPG this season.
The Bears have allowed 17.4 PPG this season -- fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Bears are 3-6 ATS this season. They're 1-2 ATS on the road this season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The under has hit in each of their last three games.
The Rams are 6-3 ATS this season. They're 1-2 ATS at home this season and 5-3 ATS as favorites. The under has hit in each of their last four games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (Mexico City)
Pat Mahomes threw six TDs and no INTs in two games combined against the Chargers last season.
The Chiefs defense has sacked opposing QBs on 13.3% of pass attempts since Week 7 -- 2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4%
Mike Williams has averaged 14.8 yards per target since Week 7 -- best of 67 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 8.3
Keenan Allen has just one TD in eight career games against the Chiefs.
Melvin Gordon had 166 yards from scrimmage in his last game against the Chiefs.
Austin Ekeler has averaged 7.0 yards from scrimmage per touch since Week 7 -- 2nd best of 44 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 4.8
The Chiefs are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Chargers.
The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 PPG this season.
The Chargers have allowed 19.4 PPG this season.
The Chargers are averaging 20.7 PPG this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 23.9 PPG overall this season and 29.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Chiefs are 5-5 ATS this season. The over has hit in seven of their 10 games this season.
The Chargers are 3-5-2 ATS this season. They're 2-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season. The under has hit in seven of their 10 games this season.
Hey all, here is this week's matchup notes pulled from the weekly NFL pick'em article over at FantasyData.com. The best way to get the most out of this is to simply look for the players in the matchup that you may have questions about this week and hopefully you'll find some answers there. There are also some nuggets in here for sports betting in case you're looking to put money on any gams this week, but they can also be really helpful for fantasy as well. If you've been following this post every week, first of all, thank you! But just a heads up, I have a bye next week so there won't be any notes for Week 12. Good luck this week!
Patriots vs Broncos – AFC Championship BETTING LINE: As far as more numbers are concerned, here are the reduced juice football betting odds posted on this game by the people at Chinese Bookie: New England Patriots -3 (+100) Denver Broncos +3 (-110) Over 44.5 points -108 Under 44.5 points -102 Patriots’ Betting Record: ATS 7-5-0 | OVER/UNDER 4-8-0 Patriots’ Leaders on Offense. QB Tom Brady: 3,268 pass yards with 18 TD and 6 INT. RB Sony Michel: 719 total yards with 6 TD Before we dissect this game, lets take a look at the latest Broncos vs. Patriots lines for this AFC Divisional Playoff game. Broncos vs. Patriots Lines: 2011 – 2012 AFC Divisional Playoffs. Broncos – Patriots Betting Line Update: As of 9:15am Saturday morning, the only line that has changed recently is the money line at BetOnline. The New England Patriots vs. Broncos Betting MoneyLine Patriots -320 Broncos +260 In picking games straight-up for moneyline odds, our philosophy involves taking a look at the way that the two teams match up holistically, in order to assign a mental advantage to one team or the other. Patriots vs. Broncos: Game Analysis for Betting on the Point Spread. The New England Patriots have two blowout wins over the Titans and Bills this season, but they’ve also lost two close games to the Cardinals and the Ravens. Last week the Pats looked horrible in the first half of the game, but turnovers helped them blowout the Bills.
LIVE In-Game NFL Betting Preview Patriots vs Broncos Sunday Night Football Sports Rage
World Champion Las Vegas handicapper Jim Feist examines the New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos 2016 NFL Playoff preview from a Las Vegas wagering perspective for January 24, 2016. The New England Patriots will be a rare home underdog in NFL Week 9 when they host the formidable Denver Broncos, who have covered 4 NFL spreads in a row. Follow us on Facebook https://www ... The Patriots lead the AFC East but lost a close game to Carolina last week. Denver is leading the AFC West after beating the then undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Preview, November 2, 2014 by Jim Feist. 3:36. Why did the New England Patriots work out former Broncos Montee Ball and Zac Dysert? (December 18, 2016) Series dominance plus upgrade a QB handicapped by Pro Bettor Steve Fezzik - with Brad Powers from the Pregame.com Studios in Las Vegas. NFL Pro Football Free Pick: New England ...