Chargers-Raiders odds: Oakland a home 'dog vs. Los Angeles

Oakland Raiders vs L.A. Chargers 12/22/19 Free NFL Picks Week 16, Predictions, Betting Odds & Tips

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Will the Indianapolis Colts win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

Franchise QB Andrew Luck stunned the NFL world a few weeks before the 2019 season began by announcing his retirement at age 29. I really felt sorry for Colts fans; that had to be a devastating blow. The timing also prevented the team from drafting accordingly.

Indianapolis rolled with Jacoby Brissett and they were right in the thick of the playoff race. They were sitting on a 6-4 record before a four-game losing skid crushed their hopes.

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

After spending 16 seasons with the Chargers (!!!), Philip Rivers will be wearing a Colts uniform in 2020. That’s going to look weird.

Last year, Rivers had his fourth-highest passing yard output with 4,615, but the problem lied with his poor TD-to-INT ratio. Indeed, 20 interceptions represented the second-most of his career, while his 23 TD passes were its lowest in 12 years.

Rivers has never been much of a runner. Now in his late thirties, things are looking even worse. He seems to get bottled up easily. Also, he appeared dead armed at numerous times. We’ll see if a change of scenery will rejuvenate his career, but it seems doubtful at this point.

Jacoby Brissett has to be one of the top backup QB in the league. With Andrew Luck announcing his surprise retirement a few weeks before the 2019 season began, Brissett took over under center.

Brissett didn’t have a great year. Throwing just six interceptions was nice, but racking up just 18 TD passes just won’t cut it in the NFL. Granted, he didn’t have a lot of weapons at his disposal with the Colts lacking a #2 WR and their top wideout T.Y. Hilton missing six games. He still represents a good insurance policy in case the Rivers experiment doesn’t pan out.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

After missing to hit the 1,000 rushing-yard mark by 92, Marlon Mack accomplished the feat in 2019 with 1,091 rushing yards. He’s not much of a receiver, though; he caught just 14 passes last year.

My opinion may not be very popular, but I’m not sold on him. I believe he benefits a lot from the great blocking in front of him. He rarely gets much more than what’s blocked ahead of him. Still, he’ll remain Indy’s top back, while splitting time with a few more guys.

Jordan Wilkins added a bit over 300 rushing yards by posting a nice 6.0 yards-per-rush average. The year before, that average turned out to be 5.6. Those are great numbers, but the team seems reluctant to increase his workload.

Nyheim Hines is mainly used as a pass catcher. He might take on an Austin Ekeler-type role with Rivers this year.

Considering the depth at the position, taking Jonathan Taylor early in the 2nd round of the draft may sound puzzling at first. Perhaps the organization agrees with me about Mack not being as great as he looks. The fact that Mack is set to hit free agency at the end of the year also played a role in the decision as well.

Taylor carried the ball 926 times for the Wisconsin Badgers. He rushed for at least 1,975 yards in each of his three college years, which is unreal! He is a great runner with cement hands; he fumbles the ball too often and doesn’t catch very well out of the backfield.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

T.Y. Hilton had missed just four games during his first seven seasons in the NFL; he missed six matchups in 2019 alone. He ended with career-lows in receptions (45) and receiving yards (501).

He stormed out of the gate with 30 receptions, 306 yards and 5 TDs over the first five games. During the next five: 15 catches, 195 yards and 0 TD. He had an injury-riddled season.

I believe he can revert to his old self. He showed he could still play at a high level early in the season, but injuries got the best of him. We’ll see how his 30-year old body reacts in 2020.

The undrafted receiver from Old Dominion, Zach Pascal, showed some flashes last year. He led the team with 45 receptions and 5 TDs. I don’t believe he can do much better, though.

It’s difficult to evaluate Parris Campbell’s first year as a pro. He had a sore hamstring, a sports hernia, a broken hand and a broken foot in 2019. It’s hard to show off your skills under such circumstances.

The speedy receiver out of Ohio St. will have a chance to prove his worth in the upcoming season. He was selected in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft at the #59 overall spot.

Another candidate to start opposite Hilton is second-round rookie Michael Pittman from USC. The word on him is he’s a hard worker with a good mix of size and speed. He also does a great job with contested catches and he has reliable hands, as shown by his five drops out of 254 targets in college.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

The Colts had a nice combo of pass catching tight ends with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. Both finished with similar above-average marks from PFF, but Ebron packed his bags to head to Pittsburgh. His presence will be missed, even though he’s known for his tendency to drop passes.

Doyle’s numbers decreased last year, but they are likely to shoot up following Ebron’s departure. After catching 59 and 80 balls during the 2016 and 2017 seasons, he missed most of the 2018 season before hauling in “just” 43 passes last year. He struggled down the stretch with just 7 receptions in four contests, but the 6’6’’ guy is likely to bounce back.

Mo Alie-Cox could see an increased role in 2020. He has only caught 15 passes in two years, but has received great grades as a blocker.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

This unit has to be one of the strongest in the entire league. They do a great job, both in the running and passing game.

After pondering about the possibility of retiring, left tackle Anthony Castonzo opted to sign a two-year deal. He graded as the seventh-best tackle in the league according to PFF, but he turns 32 very soon. Keep that in mind.

Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson has been a star at left guard. The number six overall pick from the 2018 draft out of Notre Dame has not disappointed. He was rated the second-best guard in the league, only behind Brandon Brooks from the Eagles.

Center Ryan Kelly has been a steady guy during his first four years with the Colts. He’s entering his prime years at age 27. He obtained the #8 spot out of 37 centers based on PFF ratings.

Braden Smith was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft. After receiving a very respectable 71.8 grade in his rookie season, he improved upon those numbers to reach a 79.8 mark last year. All signs point towards him being a smart selection.

Right guard Mark Glowinski seems to be the weakest link of the fortress. He was claimed off waivers in 2018 after the Seahawks released him. He has been an average player in his two-year stint in Indy.

In summary, all five starters are returning which is excellent news for the Colts. Having continuity on the offensive line is critical to success.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

The whole QB position received a lift with the addition of Philip Rivers. Whether he’ll be an adequate starter or not remains to be seen, but having Rivers-Brissett has to be viewed as a better alternative than having Brissett-Hoyer, as was the case in 2019.

The RB and WR positions remain fairly intact with the exceptions of a few backups who won’t be there anymore. The team definitely has good depth in the backfield; the same cannot be said about the receiving corps. However, the WR position is much more likely to see an improvement with Hilton having a clean bill of health and Parris Campbell getting a chance to show what he can do at the pro level (as well as rookie Michael Pittman).

At tight end, losing Ebron represents a deterioration for the team.

Finally, how is the 2020 outlook for the offensive line compared to last year? Even though I love the group, you have to expect a downgrade here. These guys played at a high level, and none of them missed a single game last year. Can you really expect them not to miss any game due to injuries in 2020? That seems highly unlikely.

Therefore, we have an expected upgrade at QB and WR, but a likely downgrade at TE and on the OL. The team finished 16th out of 32 teams in terms of points scored per game. I expect the production to stay approximately the same.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

The best player on the interior of the defensive line for the Colts has been Denico Autry. After posting 10.5 sacks over his first four seasons with the Raiders, he exploded with 9 sacks with the Colts in 2018, but a disappointing 3.5 last year.

Still, his level of play has been adequate as he finished as the 32nd-best DL among 114 qualifiers. He was a respectable player in all aspects of the game.

Considering Grover Stewart was a mediocre player, the team reinforced the position by acquiring a couple of 49ers players: DeForest Buckner and Sheldon Day.

The Colts sacrificed the #13 overall pick in the 2020 draft in order to get Buckner. That’s a fair price to pay for one of the best interior defenders in the league who is also entering his prime years. He’s been good both against the run and the pass; he has averaged 7.1 sacks per season. What a huge boost for this unit!

As for Sheldon Day, he’s not nearly as good as Buckner. He’s more of a rotational presence. His PFF grades have been a bit below-average thus far in his four-year career.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Justin Houston was clearly the most dangerous pass rusher the Colts had in 2019. In his first season with Indy after spending eight years in Kansas City, he led the team with 11 sacks.

Despite missing some games due to injuries during his nine-year career, he has average 9.9 sacks per season. Now on the wrong side of 30, you need to start being concerned about whether his play will tail off or not.

Jabaal Sheard was used on more than 50% of the defensive snaps. He regularly gets 4-5 sacks per season, as was the case last year. However, poor tackling has penalized him in his PFF grades, making him the 81st-best edge defender out of 107 players. He has yet to be signed by any team so far.

Al-Quadin Muhammad played 47% of the snaps and had mitigated success. It was his best season over his three-year career, but nothing spectacular either. He’s not a great athlete and was a former sixth-round pick; he has limited upside.

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

I don’t think the Colts regret picking Darius Leonard in the second round of the 2018 draft. As a rookie, he led the league in tackles with 163 (19 more than any other player!). Last year, he picked up 121 tackles in 13 games, on pace for 149.

He is the total package. He’s efficient in run defense, in coverage and as a pass rusher. As a matter of fact, he has recorded 12 sacks during those two years.

That being said, Colts fans have to be concerned about some comments he made last year. He was concussed for three weeks following a big collision with Derrick Henry and he experienced painful headaches for a while. During his absence, he debated his NFL future. If he suffers another concussion, he seems to be thinking already about a potential retirement.

Anthony Walker’s job could be in jeopardy. He played many more snaps than rookie Bobby Okereke, but the latter is definitely breathing down his neck.

Walker graded as an average linebacker with the number 42 spot out of 89 players. His grade took a huge hit because of poor run defense.

Meanwhile, the rookie from Stanford obtained the 9th-highest grade in the league! He was an every-down linebacker in college, and is very likely to get an increase workload in 2020.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Rock Ya-Sin enjoyed a satisfying rookie season. He is an interesting story. After playing three years at a Divison-2 college, he transferred to Temple for his final year. Despite not being particularly fast, his sheer will helped him earn amazing grades. He yielded a meager 53% completion rate and not a single one went above 20 yards. He finished as an average corner in 2019; with one full year of experience under his belt, he is likely to improve this season.

Pierre Desir obtained the second-highest playing time among the team’s cornerbacks. He took a step back after a breakout 2018 campaign and the team decided to release him. The Jets signed him the next day.

It remains to be seen which player will benefit the most from Desir’s departure. The Colts acquired T.J. Carrie and Xavier Rhodes, formerly of the Browns and the Vikings, respectively. Both of them are coming off a very disappointing season.

Rhodes used to be a pretty solid corner, but his play has deteriorated a lot recently. After receiving 73.8 and 72.4 grades from PFF in 2016 and 2017, he earned a disappointing 58.2 mark in 2018 and a dreadful 47.9 last year. Did injuries slow him down, or is he done?

Carrie was pretty ineffective with the Browns last year. After a few fairly good seasons with the Raiders, his play took a dip in each of his two years in Cleveland. I don’t have much faith he can rebound.

Don’t count out Kenny Moore though. He was surprisingly good in the slot last year. We’ll see if he can solidify a starting spot in this now crowded secondary.

3.5 Safeties (S)

Malik Hooker and Khari Willis finished the 2019 season with an identical PFF grade: 69.5. That mark put them in the number 37 spot out of 87 safeties.

Hooker is a former first-round pick out of Ohio State that has picked off at least two passes in each of its first three years as a pro. He has done a fine job and is still very young.

The Colts traded up to select Willis in the 4th round of the 2019 draft. His first season exceeded expectations as he shared time with Clayton Geathers, who has yet to sign a contract.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Will the 2020 defense be superior to the 2019 unit?

I love the fortification on the interior of the line with the big-time acquisition of DeForest Buckner, and to a lesser level Sheldon Day.

The CB position may also see an upgrade with Ya-Sin’s sophomore season coming up and the additions of Rhodes and Carrie (with the hopes that one of them will bounce back after a frustrating 2019 season).

At safety, Hooker and Hillis could also elevate their play because of their young age and added experience.

However, as a whole I see a downgrade in the edge / linebacking corps. Justin Houston is not getting any younger, and Jabaal Sheard could be missed. The team must also cross its fingers that Darius Leonard won’t suffer another concussion.

Overall, I see a small upgrade here. Adding Buckner coupled with young talented guys like Leonard, Ya-Sin and Hooker makes me predict they will finish around the 12th-15th place in terms of points allowed (as opposed to 18th last year).

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Colts are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results:

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 8.5 WINS 66.9% DraftKings -143 +13.7%
UNDER 8.5 WINS 33.1% Sports Interaction +180 -7.3%

Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.7%
Rank: 20th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -202

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Colts’ 16 regular season games:

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

Woohoo! You made it through the whole article, thanks for reading my friend! Tomorrow, we'll talk about the Philadelphia Eagles!

Professor MJ
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)

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Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game.
Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u)
Parlay: none
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco.

Early Games (1pm)

Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends...
I think this is also a good game to look at props:
  • Evan Ingram: Obviously I am looking here. He is coming off two weeks rest. He is the primary receiver for Jones and he is facing the Cardinals.
  • Scary Larry: Not only does he normally do well playing in MetLife stadium, but he is the most consistent, reliable option for Murray. Fitz has caught at least 5 balls in EVERY game this year. His total is 5.5 right now and is +
  • Markus Golden: He has been killing it this year. Recording at least 0.5 sacks in 5 games straight and Kyler Murray is 5th on the most sacked list right now with 21 times.
At the beginning of the weak, I was going to be hard on the over too. Both crappy D, both two young QBs looking to be the better choice. But, with the addition of Saquan back in the lineup, I am cautious of the Giants running the ball against the Arizona D that is giving up 4.6 ypc, allowing them to manage the clock better. The algo has the Giants at -5 and I am definitely in concurrence on this game. I also might sprinkle a little on the Giants to win the NFC East. It's early, but looking at their schedule...now would be the time to take them if you like them!

Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much).
My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division)
Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points.
If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND.

Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo.

Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.*

San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.)

Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away.

Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total.

L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start****

Afternoon Games (4pm)

L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries/_/team/ten ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope!

New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records.

Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\***
If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over)

Night Game (8 pm)

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles"
The injury reports for both teams:
Dallas
  • CB Anthony Brown (hamstring) - OUT
  • WR Amari Cooper (ankle/quad) - Questionable
  • WR Randall Cobb (back) - Questionable
  • OT Tyron Smith (ankle) - Questionable
  • OT La'el Collins (knee) - Questionable
  • C Joe Looney (back) - Questionable
  • G Zack Martin (back/ankle) - Questionable
  • DE Dorance Armstrong (neck) - Questionable
  • CB Byron Jones (hamstring) - Questionable
Philly
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad) - OUT
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen) - OUT
  • OT Jason Peters (knee) - OUT
  • DT Tim Jernigan (foot) - OUT
  • LB Nigel Bradham (ankle) - OUT
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion, neck) - OUT
  • CB Ronald Darby (hamstring) - Questionable
This game looks like it could go either way. I lean on Prescott's running ability to help keep some drives alive but personally I think the best look in this game is Dallas Team Total points. Currently it sits at 24/24.5 depending on the book. The Eagles have given up at least 24 points to EVERY QB this year Except Luke Faulk and the Jets.

Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
  • Evan Ingram 5.5 Rec Over (0.68u to win 0.5u)
  • Scary Larry 5.5 Rec Over (2u to win 2.4u)d
  • Markus Golden 0.5 Sacks Over (3.4u to win 2u)
  • Giants 1H (1.6u to win 1u)
  • Giants ml (5.1u to win 3u)
  • Colts 1H ml (1.2u to win 1u)
  • Colts ml (1.15u to win 1u)
  • Marlon Mack 16.5 Rush Attempts Over (3.33u to win 3u)
  • Marlon Mack to score 1st TD and Colts Win (0.5u to win 6.5u)
  • Devin Singletary 36.5 Rush Yards Over (2.67u to win 2u)
  • Joe Mixon 67.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • Leonard Fournette 89.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • DJ Chark 4.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.54u)
  • Oak +5.5 (1.05u to win 1u)
  • Min/Det Total 43 Under (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Atl 1Q ml (1u to win 1.23u)
  • Matt Ryan Passing Yards 310.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • LAC +3 (1.14u to win 1u)
  • Joey Bosa 0.5 Sacks Over (2.5u to win 2u)
  • Bal/Sea Both teams to score 1TD and 1FG in each half (1u to win 9u)
  • Dal Team Total 24.5 Over (2.27u to win 2u)
Parlays: 1-1 (+45.42u)
  • NYG ml, Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5, SF ml, Buf 1H ml, NE ml (0u to win 20.6u) Free Bet on Points Bet
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-3 (-2.23u)
  • Ind -1, NYG ml, 49ers -9.5, Jax ml, NE ml, Dal ml, Oak ml, Buf -17, La +2.5 (1u to win 189.5)
  • Ind +4.5, Buf -8.5, Oak +7.5, NYG ml, Jax ml , 49ers ml, LAC +3.5, Dal ml, NE ml, Bal +4.5 (0.96u to win 141.6u)
  • Marcus Golden Sacs Over, Marlon Mack Rush Attempts Over, Devin singletary rush yards over, Matt Ryan Passing Yards over, 49ers ml, NE ml, Oak ml, LAC ml, Bengals +4.5 (1u to win 190.6u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-1 (-0.5u)
  • I put in a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (0.5u to win 10000u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is live going after the early game, I will post a picture.
Teasers: 3-8 (-9.98u)
  • Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Oak +11 and Over 40 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • LAC +7.5 and Under 48.5(1.1u to win 1u)
  • Sea +5.5 and Over 42.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • I put in a 15 teamer on a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (1u to win 200u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is life after the early games, I will post a picture.
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
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THE NFL IS BACK! Week 1

THE NFL IS BACK! Week 1


https://preview.redd.it/hijqnp8vtdl31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9a4ad877f3e44b276848b61f8e5cb09a659af735
Hi everyone!

Boy am I grateful the NFL season has returned!

So here's the deal. I wrote this big post yesterday detailing what I am doing, went to work leaving my laptop open, and returned in the early AM to find it had done an automatic restart and updates. Unfortunately this closed the tab I had open with my Reddit post before I could proof and post it. It is already 9am on Sunday and i have to leave for work soon so this post will be much much shorter and I will update by Tuesday my outline and betting parameters for the season.

Something I wrote about in depth in the first post and will rewrite with detail is my opinion on betting the NFL season. The short version is I don't bet very heavy on the first few weeks. I believe the early weeks are for data collection and as the season progresses, my bet sizes will increase in relation to the amount of information I have combined with my algo's confidence on a given scenario.

Because of this, I wont be putting much on week 1. Mostly underdogs I see value on or a prop play I like.

To keep this post short and sweet, I will just do a fast rundown of the games and tell you who I am favoring(no spreads) and why:

EARLY GAMES:

WAS/PHL: I am going to side with the eagles on this one. Their offence is back to health, they have picked up Deshawn Jackson to compliment Alshon and give the eagles a deep threat. Barring injuries, I see the eagles being easy playoff contenders. WAS on the other hand... Still should have a decent D, but the O...is up for grabs. Case Keenum and a receiving core of mostly unheard of players? We shall see!

LACAR: An interesting match up I am curious to see. LA is coming off a Superbowl loss while CAR is coming off a let down season that started 6-2 only to finish 7-9 after some injuries to key players. Fortunately, they are looking strong and personally I have always liked a healthy CAR team at home. I look for this game to go either way, I think the CAR D will play a big part in determining the outcome. SU I feel this is a coin flip, but give the home team points and I think the scale tips.

BUF/NYJ: I cant wait to see how both of these teams do this season. Both could be playoff contenders or 7-9 teams. BUF seems healthy and has some added offensive weapons to compliment their already legit D. NY also seems healthy and added a Key player in Bell who has had almost 2 years to get ready for this day. I think NY leans on him as a work horse, especially on pass catching downs that are 3rd and short. Personally before looking at anything, I liked the Jets just because of the home advantage in a coin flip game. However, it looks like sharp money is keeping BUF at +2.5 now...

ATL/MINN: A lovely dome match up for week 1. Like most teams, they both seem rather healthy. The falcons will be looking to return to the offensive form that carried them to the Superbowl against the Patriots. MINN is looking for Cousins to get them the amount of wins they paid him for. Personally I think Cousins is a choker when hes the favorite and this is a dome game for an ATL team that usually plays pretty good in Sept, especially as a dog. SU I think this is pretty close to a flip, but with the points, I lean road dog.

BAL/MIA: Old vs. New. Fitzmagic vs. twinkle toes Jackson. Classic new coach, on a "tanking team" vs. old coach on a ....idk what to say here. I mean, if Jackson can settle into the NFL like cam and learn to hold the pocket more and only use his running to exploit and not as a crutch...then BAL can be a real contender. Do I thnk he will do that in year 2? Most likely not. Fitzmagic is a recent acquisition from Tamba Bay so he is used to the Florida Heat. Personally...I am gonna go hard on a limb and ride the MIA upset. Crushing the public's perception of football and shocking the world...leading them to a spectacular 3-13 season. :P

KC/JAX: Another great match up to check out. KC coming of a fantastic year and adding an old piece of Reids puzzle into the mix in McCoy. JAX off a horrible year, changing QBs and getting healthy. Surprisingly Nick Foles is 3-0 as a season opener starter. If the JAX D can keep the KC O under 27 points, I think there is a total chance at an upset. OBV its hard to take against KC, but JAX at home with some points and a fresh record...watch out!

TEN/CLE: Marriota is back for TEN. Can he finally pull a full, healthy, decent year? If so, they can be a contender. Can they compete with the Buzzing Browns? They had a big turn around last year and added some key compliments this year. I like the browns having an edge here being home but there is a lot of points on this game...maybe too many?

Mid Day Games:

CIN/SEA: I have a feeling this could be a good year for SEA. I do think they are in a tough DIV with the Rams and SF both having good opportunities this year. Even while getting rid of some key Defensive players, I like Pete Carroll to always give his teams a shot. CIN is like the opposite end of the spectrum for me. They somehow always find away to fart on their chances and this year I think they will easily take the bottom spot in their division losing both vs. Pitt and at least one to each CLE and BAL. Easy home side pick here SU.

IND/LAC: Before Luck's departure I would have been all over INDY in this match up. After...I guess Ill lean the chargers. Personally I dislike betting on or against rivers. He always seems to do the opposite of what I need, haha. Should be interesting to see how these teams fair this year.

SF/TB: I dont know how TB is still a favorite here. SF is primed to have a sneaky season IMO. The only thing keeping them from an easy road to the playoffs is being in a DIV with strong competition like the LAR and SEA. But against projected .500 or worse teams like TB? I like them to come out and make a statement. Also, the raiders are leaving soon and the Chargers are always a possible candidate to ship overseas...SoCal needs a team to fall in love with for the next 5 years and I think SF and Garapallo might be the group. I am ride or die with them this season :D

NYG/DAL: Unless the Giants know something about Eli Manning that the rest of the world doesn't know, I am thoroughly disappointed in them. Maybe they are still rebuilding but I feel like they are wasting some of the best years of Barkely's life. I like DAL SU here but once you introduce so many points into it...I think the edge shifts to NY. These to usually play closer games against each other with scores that usually stay below 30. Giving a full TD to a side here is questionable IMO.

DET/ARZ: DET has disappointed in recent years and looks to get back to a winning season. ARZ has a bunch of new faces, including first year QB Murry. A dome game usually makes me favor Stafford. He is a passing yards machine and ARZ Patrick Peterson is out for a suspension. Gotta give the edge to the road vet vs. the fresh face.

Night Game
PIT/NE: This is going to be a big let down game IMO. Week 12 this would be a fantastic game. The Superbowl champion Pats with newly acquired Brown take on a PIT team that lost its two star O players in Brown and Bell. The signs point to an easy NE win...at home, Cmon. But...for some reason I think this will be much closer than people think with PIT having a chance at an upset here. No stats to back it up, just a gut feeling that NE almost never comes out hot in Sept and the public should be wayyyy over valuing the name.

Monday Games:
HOU/NO: Well, well, well. NO is back. How angry are they that they weren't in the Superbowl last year? Enough to put up 35 points a game again and crush it? We shall seeeeee! I dont have a favorite here against the points...SU I think you have to just take the home dome team. But it is a fresh season and who knows if NO used up all their juice last year or what the Texans will do this year.

DEN/OAK: Even with AB, I was going to side with DEN here. It may just be the hype of Hard Knocks, but I think OAK is building something great to take to Vegas. DEN has a spectacular D and they added a QB with some winning experience. OAK has a decent offense forming, I think it will be up to their D to show us if they are ready to be a winning team again. Gonna side with the roadies here.

There you have it! My quick type rundown of week one. (It only took an hour and half, two cups of coffee, three spliffs and a partridge in a pair tree) Honestly, it was rather hard to sit down and type this again this morning after having done it all last night in much greater detail. Like I said, I wont be making many wagers in the early weeks, so I wont post my actual picks this week. Most of them are free bets being used from NJ websites offering reload bonuses.
Some of the bets I am looking at:
  • CAR 1st quarteHalf (love me some east coast early game vs west coast teams)
  • DeShawn Jackson Total Yards, Over (He is a crusher of season openers. I think he has 5 or 6 for 100+ yards)
  • Teaser contenders: CAR, ATL, JAX, PHL, SF, DET, PITT, DEN

I very much am looking forward to this season and I would like to thank everyone for reading, I hope to add to my articles with a weekly podcast for your enjoyment. Check back around Tuesday where I will do a post updating my betting parameters for this season. Good luck everyone!
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Quick Thoughts on every Week 1 game

PRO TIP: CTRL+F the players you care about
Panthers @ Broncos
Vikings @ Titans
Browns @ Eagles
Chargers @ Chiefs
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Packers @ Jaguars
Bears @ Texans
Bills @ Ravens
Raiders @ Saints
Bengals @ Jets
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Giants @ Cowboys
Lions @ Colts
Patriots @ Cardinals
Steelers @ Redskins
Rams @ 49ers
Thanks for reading! I hope this was helpful to some of you in making lineup decisions. If I missed someone and you want to know what I think of them, feel free to ask in the comments.
If you enjoyed this consider checking out this thread about the Fantasy Collective, a fantasy team drafted and managed by the popular vote of redditors like yourself. We’re setting our lineup today so just pop in, vote for who you would start, and you’re done!
Best of luck to all in Week 1!
submitted by Ehan2 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

The Degenerate Vs The Novice Chronicles - Week 3

This is a post chronicling me vs my big brother Brandon in a pick 'em pool against the spread in the NFL. I watch too much football, and he watches 1 game a year, and its for the buffet at our Super Bowl party. Oh, and to cap off how lucky this man is, every year at said party he cashes in every box pool he enters for the game, and usually wins the 50/50 draw the pub holds the day of the big game, valued typically well over $400. That's what I'm up against.
Week 2 Review There's a lot we can take from week 2. Stafford is here to play, Seattle has parchment paper for an offensive line, Trevor Siemian might be pretty freaking good, ten years later and Alex Smith can finally throw farther than 10 yards, and I am very bad at picking against the spread. I mean. I knew that, but now all of you do too.
YTD Brandon 14-15 Gary 11-18
Ravens -4 @ Jaguars
Brandon - Jaguars: The "Kitties" or going to beat the "Birdies" due to leftover pollution from the industrial revolution.. Apparently the birds are always the first to die because of air quality
Gary - Jaguars: Who have the ravens beaten? Nobody. Literally nobody. This IS a home game for the Jags despite it being in london, regardless of how many Raiders, Titans, Broncos, Falcons and Panthers jerseys are in the stands. England loves Blake Bortels. Though that may change. I'm not ready to give up on the Jags yet, and I'm fully aware this game will most likely force me too.
Broncos -3 @ Bills
Brandon - Bills: It's going to be the running of the Bills so Buffalo will cover. Because of this, I then asked him how many rushing yards - or running yards as he says - he said they will have 82. When asked why he said "because its not quite double 44." Sound logic.
Gary - Broncos: They dismantled the Cowboys last week. Hell, the defense made that O'line look absolutely silly. And that's no small feat. The Broncos aren't what we thought they were.
Steelers [email protected] Bears
Brandon - Steelers: He said that because winter is coming, the Bears are worries more about eating and bulking up for hibernation, they will be less focused on football.
Gary - Bears: This is the week they will debut their new toy, Mitch Trubisky. However it will be late 3rd quarter and they will be down by two touchdowns. But dammit he'll play. He'll probably even put up some huge garbage time numbers like my boy Blake, and that't why they will cover.
Falcons [email protected] Lions
Brandon - Falcons: He doesn't see the lions as a good team, reverting back to his logic of, in NFL Blitz 2000 they were trash.
Gary - Falcons: I hate picking this game. I like both teams. So I'm just going with my gut on this one.
Browns [email protected] Colts
Brandon - Browns: His immediate reaction was to point out how bad he knows the browns are. See Cleveland, even this football ignoramus knows how shitty your franchise is. He says if the brows are favored, then the colts must be the worst team of all time. I'm not sure he's incorrect.
Gary - Colts: So last week I said I wouldn't take the Colts if they kept throwing Tolzein out there. Well they played Brissett. So obviously they covered. With him olaying against the Browns, I see this going Indianapolis' way.
Buccaneers Pick @ Vikings
Brandon - Vikings: It's history lesson time with Brandon. If we look back in time, we see pirates, and vikings, which he calls Scandinavian pirates. We have to see what the accomplished. The pirates only have Captain Jack Sparrow. But the Vikings founded North America by first landing on the shores of Newfoundland. Also, Josh Donaldson is on that show Vikings, and he is a die hard Toronto Blue Jays Fan. Picking a football team based on your favorite baseball team. Bold strategy Brandon. Let's see if it pays off.
Gary - Buccaneers: - I really like this Bucs team. I think they could compete for the division lead this year. They looked strong last week, and I believe they will look just as strong going forward.
Texans [email protected] Patriots
Brandon - Texans: And I quote, "Fuck that, I'm taking the Texans!" He believes Texans are convinced that they are pure blooded Americans, and would have a bone to pick with a team called the Patriots. While I'm not sure his theory holds any merit keep in mind, we are Canadian and may not be 100% accurate on this one.
Gary - Patriots: Every time I pick against Brady with a big spread it boots me square in the ass. I don't like being booted in the ass, it sucks. If there's one thing I've learned in my years of gambling on football, is don't bet against Brady.
Dolphins [email protected] Jets
Brandon - Jets: First I think it should be noted that he calls the dolphins the Dan Marinos, which is much more intimidating than a dolphin if you ask me, and he calls the Jets the Whirly Birds. Second he went on a rant about how its the battle of aquatic creatures vs an airborne attacker. After what can only be described as the incoherent ramblings of a deranged individual, he landed on the jets covering because they play football on aircraft carriers, according to him.
Gary - Dolphins: Jets are trash. Next.
Giants [email protected] Eagles
Brandon - Giants: For this one he didn't say anything funny. He just looked me dead in the eyes and said he had a gut feeling. It was a very scary moment.
Gary - Eagles: Their D looked unbelievable last week against the Chiefs, they just got tired in the 4th quarter. Overworked you might say. But the Giants offensive line is not going to tire out the Eagles defense. Not only do I predict a Eagles win, but I predict Eli throws no fewer than 3 interceptions.
Saints [email protected] *Panthers
Brandon -Panthers He has a feeling its going to be a boring match up. He's avoiding a tirade about black panthers, which in his eyes, is probably for the better. He had a hard time with this one because i guess its the League of Legends world championships and he's very into e-sports.
Gary - Panthers: I had a hard time with this one. The Panthers haven't really wowed me outside of the defense. But even the Saints offense has been lackluster so far. Also, the saints are terrible in September.
Seahawks [email protected] Titans
Brandon - Titans: He noticed that both teams have alliteration in their names. Then incorrectly identifying the letter T coming before the letter. And that's why he is picking the Titans.
Gary - Titans: Seattle is on a time out. They almost lost to San Fran. That game was ugly as they come. Until, they show me they are dedicated to getting better, I will not pick them. Plus the Titans are solid.
Bengals [email protected] Packers
Brandon - Packers: He doesn't hesitate with the packers. I think he might be cheese head at heart but cant bring himself to admit it. He then said that a nine point spread is huge, so obviously they will cover. Obviously.
Gary - Packers: The Bengals haven't scored a touchdown yet. And I'm supposed to believe they are going to go into Lambo and cover a nine point spread against Aaron Rogers? No.
Side note - at this point I also am watching the League of Legends world championships. I now know how people that know literally nothing about football feel about watching a game. Kind of exciting though.
Chiefs [email protected] Chargers
Brandon - Chargers: He loves rooting against my team. I'm pretty sure that's his main motivation in this pick. He also said that he thinks they'll cover because of how small the spread is. I'm starting to think understand the concept of spreads.
Gary - Chiefs: Gary the homer strikes again. Yes I love the chiefs, and yes I recognize that the chargers are 2 kicks away from being 2-0. But there's this desire to win I'm seeing out of the Chiefs late in games. They were in nobody's top power rankings at the beginning of the season and looks like they have a desire to know the chip off their shoulder. Plus, Kareem Hunt is a monster. Bonus tip: At last check, Hunt was still 20-1 to win rookie of the year. Seems like a futures bet worth betting on.
Raiders [email protected] Redskins
Brandon - Redskins: His first reaction was to point out that a raider is a land pirate. Then made his usual pick of the Redskins, "because of racism."
Gary - Raiders: The Raiders look excellent right now. And the Washington's one win wasn't that impressive. To me this one is easy, which obviously means I'm going to lose it.
Cowboys [email protected] Cardinals
Brandon - Cowboys: He grabbed a coin. He actually flipped a coin. Heads is the cardinals, because cardinals have heads.
Gary - Cowboys: Not a fan of what Palmer is doing this year. They barely beat the Colts last week, and I had high hopes for them this year. With that said, I'm going with the Cowboys with little reluctance.
If you so choose you can follow me on the twitter machine @theGaryKozchuck. I'm also trying to figure out a way to put this in podcast for so if any of you would like something like that, then let me know so I can work more vigilantly on it. Thanks, and happy betting.
submitted by TheGaryKozchuck to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Color Rush is actually great.

I hear a lot of complaints about Color Rush. Mostly that it’s a money grab by the NFL. I don’t think that’s the case, because a lot of teams aren’t really changing a whole lot of their jerseys, plus no one is going out and buying them, just cuz they have to. They buy them because they like them and for no other reason. Some people think that its ruins heritage. To those people, I say that you are living in the past and it’s really only one game. What Color Rush is, is an exercise in creativity. And if you are too stubborn then you miss a chance to get a new group of fan. Sorry to say it, but some people pick teams by how pretty their uniform are. Anyways I’ve had my own ideas lately and thought I would write them down.
Bills- They’ve got it right with the all red uniform. IF they wanted they could also wear the all blue.
Patriots- Right now they wear all navy, which is pretty conservative. I think that they could wear royal blue and change the decal to the classic patriot logo.
Dolphins- Damn their orange uniform is smokin. If they wanted they could always wear the teal combo.
Jets- They looks nice in the all green. Which is good cuz they don’t have any other options.
Chiefs- They look sharp in the all red. I’ve pictured them in all yellow, but it always looks hideous. Something else has to be done if they want to use the yellow like the Rams did.
Broncos- This is the team that got me into Color Rush. This is the product of some creative individuals as well as a team that is willing to take risks, and it pays off. The all-orange is amazing especially with the change to the classic logo.
Raiders- These guys are in a real pickle because they don’t really have a color. They are the only team that I am okay with wearing all black. However I would like to see them at least take a stab at doing an all silver uniform.
Chargers- The combo that they did with the royal blue was amazing. I bet they could look equally awesome in powder blue. They understand what color rush is all about.
Ravens- They have to go with purple. Maybe even purple facemasks? That might be cool.
Steelers- Here’s a tough one. Because you really don’t want to disrespect some of the most classic uniforms. It just means that you need folks that are willing to go the extra mile to make you look good. Here’s my idea, I think they should go with yellow unis. Solid black numbers and black sleeve caps. Then have a red, blue, and yellow stripe on the sleeve. Yellow facemask might be a bit too much, but it might be worth looking at.
Bengals- I can’t believe that they choose to use an all-white uniform. All orange and take off some of those stripes off the caps and stripes of the pants.
Browns- You can go with all brown or all orange.
Titans- Their powder blue is very good. Keep it.
Jaguars- I’m not a huge fan of the gold uniforms, but I tip my hat to anyone who is willing to take a risk. So keep wearing the gold, if you want you could always switch to the teal color and it would be good too.
Colts- Much like the Jets you have limited options- Blue is the only way to go.
Texans- Their all navy uniform is nice and simple. Kind of like the Patriots I would like to see them push the boundaries a little. I think they could get away with doing an Oilers throwback with an all powder blue uniform. OH man that would be so awesome to see the Texans vs Titans in a rivalry battle over the Oilers heritage.
Eagles- I think that they should go with Kelly green and change the stripes and numbers to the midnight green that they have been using lately. If they wanted they could change the color of the wings decal to a Kelly green outline to match.
Cowboys- White is such a copout. Wear all navy. Use the Navy jerseys from the 94 era. The pants can be navy too. In the movie the “Little Giants” the Cowboys team wore Navy pants and they were pretty cool. You might be able to come with a royal blue combo if you stopped trying to be so pretentious.
Redskins- Wowzers those yellow unis are… Well you get points for trying. And maybe they wouldn’t look so bad if you hadn’t used a 300 lb. lineman in your color rush campaign advertisement. I still haven’t seen the all yellow, but you could always go with all maroon as well.
Giants- Just like the Cowboys, the Giants think that they are too cool for change. Just wear all blue; it’ll look amazing.
Rams- My hat goes off to you. Those yellow uniforms are load and proud.
Seahawks- Bright green is a bit much, but don’t change a thing. Just because I think they are over the top doesn’t mean you should scrap the whole thing. Its color rush, it once a year, like Halloween. Have fun with the green uniforms.
Cardinals- All red. Don’t give m this all black BS.
49ers- I’m okay with black uniforms, but not as a color rush. Switch to all red and change the facemask back to red. There, problem solved.
Vikings- Purple, duh.
Lions- Once again black is not a color. You guys have one of the nicest shades of blue in the game, use it.
Packers- All white, are you kidding me. Wear all green, it would be awesome. With some big solid yellow numbers and stripes. Throwback to the 53 Packers would be great.
Bears- The all navy is fine, but it’s just that. Use the jersey that has solid orange numbers. If you’ve got a design team that can be trusted then have them come up with something in orange. I know what you’re thinking, but the Broncos did it and so did the Dolphins and they both look great. Give it a try.
Falcons- Red.
Panthers- they should be wearing all blue, and they do, so they’re fine.
Buccaneers- I think they are the team that can do whatever they want and get away with it. So switch to creamsicle orange and slam the old logo on your pewter helmets. It will be a total old school meets new wave fusion. It’ll be great. Or stick with the red, but secretly don’t do it.
Saints- Come on. If the Jaguars can put together a gold uniform so can you. Get your shit together.
submitted by Chrisypissyanties to nfl [link] [comments]

Chargers vs Raiders Predictions [11-07-2019] HOT 12-3 80% PREMIUM NFL PICKS RUN! (Week 10 NFL Picks) Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders NFL Pick and Prediction 12/22/19 Week 16 NFL Betting Tips Chargers at Raiders - Thursday 11/7/19 - NFL Betting Free Picks & Predictions l Picks & Parlays Chargers vs Raiders Week 10 Preview  Thursday Night Football Picks & Betting Odds Chargers vs Raiders Betting Prediction for this Thursday Night Showdown

It’s time to make a Chargers vs. Raiders prediction. The Chargers have probably burned me more than any other team in my betting career, so take the following with a grain of salt. I expect the Chargers to move the ball through the air at will against a struggling pass defense, while I also believe that an improving Los Angeles pass rush will Betting Preview for the Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders NFL Regular Season Week 10 Game on November 7, 2019 Where : RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland When : Thursday, November 7, 2019, 8:20 PM ET The Oakland Raiders (4-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) meet up in Week 10 for an AFC West clash at RingCentral Coliseum on Thursday Night Football.Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. We analyze the Chargers-Raiders odds and sports betting lines within, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup. The Chargers are looking to win against the Raiders for the second time in five weeks. Chargers vs. Raiders Odds. The Chargers are heavily favored in this one by 9.5 points. The over under on this one is 50.5 points, and most of that will be scored by the Chargers. Spread: Chargers -9.5. Total: 50.5. Chargers vs. Raiders Head to Head Noah Davis pegged the Chargers to win the game when he assessed all of the Week 10 NFL lines, and you can see where these two teams stack up in our NFL power rankings page. Those of you interested in reading my Chargers vs. Raiders predictions in this TNF betting preview just need to keep scrolling down!

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Chargers vs Raiders Predictions [11-07-2019] HOT 12-3 80% PREMIUM NFL PICKS RUN! (Week 10 NFL Picks)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders Week 10 NFL Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their Thursday Night Football showdown on November 7, 2019 from Oakland. Sports betting expert Vernon Croy ... LA Chargers at Oakland Raiders - Thursday 11/7/19 - NFL Betting Free Picks & Predictions l Picks & Parlays The tenth week of NFL regular season football is under way and we have you covered. Chargers vs Raiders betting prediction, including odds and picks. Read the full betting preview: https://www.crossingbroad.com/2019/11... New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans Predictions and Odds NFL Picks for Week 16 - Duration: 3:16. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 3,739 views 3:16 Free Thursday Night Football betting picks and predictions for LA Chargers vs Oakland Raiders. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best odds TNF Week 10, break down the game ...