|submitted by freenflpicks to sportsbetting [link] [comments]|
|OVER 8.5 WINS||66.9%||DraftKings||-143||+13.7%|
|UNDER 8.5 WINS||33.1%||Sports Interaction||+180||-7.3%|
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game.
Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u)
Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco.
Early Games (1pm)
Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends...
I think this is also a good game to look at props:
Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much).
My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division)
Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points.
If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND.
Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo.
Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.*
San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.)
Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away.
Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total.
L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start****
Afternoon Games (4pm)
L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries/_/team/ten ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope!
New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records.
Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\***
If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over)
Night Game (8 pm)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles"
The injury reports for both teams:
Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Boy am I grateful the NFL season has returned!
So here's the deal. I wrote this big post yesterday detailing what I am doing, went to work leaving my laptop open, and returned in the early AM to find it had done an automatic restart and updates. Unfortunately this closed the tab I had open with my Reddit post before I could proof and post it. It is already 9am on Sunday and i have to leave for work soon so this post will be much much shorter and I will update by Tuesday my outline and betting parameters for the season.
Something I wrote about in depth in the first post and will rewrite with detail is my opinion on betting the NFL season. The short version is I don't bet very heavy on the first few weeks. I believe the early weeks are for data collection and as the season progresses, my bet sizes will increase in relation to the amount of information I have combined with my algo's confidence on a given scenario.
Because of this, I wont be putting much on week 1. Mostly underdogs I see value on or a prop play I like.
To keep this post short and sweet, I will just do a fast rundown of the games and tell you who I am favoring(no spreads) and why:
WAS/PHL: I am going to side with the eagles on this one. Their offence is back to health, they have picked up Deshawn Jackson to compliment Alshon and give the eagles a deep threat. Barring injuries, I see the eagles being easy playoff contenders. WAS on the other hand... Still should have a decent D, but the O...is up for grabs. Case Keenum and a receiving core of mostly unheard of players? We shall see!
LACAR: An interesting match up I am curious to see. LA is coming off a Superbowl loss while CAR is coming off a let down season that started 6-2 only to finish 7-9 after some injuries to key players. Fortunately, they are looking strong and personally I have always liked a healthy CAR team at home. I look for this game to go either way, I think the CAR D will play a big part in determining the outcome. SU I feel this is a coin flip, but give the home team points and I think the scale tips.
BUF/NYJ: I cant wait to see how both of these teams do this season. Both could be playoff contenders or 7-9 teams. BUF seems healthy and has some added offensive weapons to compliment their already legit D. NY also seems healthy and added a Key player in Bell who has had almost 2 years to get ready for this day. I think NY leans on him as a work horse, especially on pass catching downs that are 3rd and short. Personally before looking at anything, I liked the Jets just because of the home advantage in a coin flip game. However, it looks like sharp money is keeping BUF at +2.5 now...
ATL/MINN: A lovely dome match up for week 1. Like most teams, they both seem rather healthy. The falcons will be looking to return to the offensive form that carried them to the Superbowl against the Patriots. MINN is looking for Cousins to get them the amount of wins they paid him for. Personally I think Cousins is a choker when hes the favorite and this is a dome game for an ATL team that usually plays pretty good in Sept, especially as a dog. SU I think this is pretty close to a flip, but with the points, I lean road dog.
BAL/MIA: Old vs. New. Fitzmagic vs. twinkle toes Jackson. Classic new coach, on a "tanking team" vs. old coach on a ....idk what to say here. I mean, if Jackson can settle into the NFL like cam and learn to hold the pocket more and only use his running to exploit and not as a crutch...then BAL can be a real contender. Do I thnk he will do that in year 2? Most likely not. Fitzmagic is a recent acquisition from Tamba Bay so he is used to the Florida Heat. Personally...I am gonna go hard on a limb and ride the MIA upset. Crushing the public's perception of football and shocking the world...leading them to a spectacular 3-13 season. :P
KC/JAX: Another great match up to check out. KC coming of a fantastic year and adding an old piece of Reids puzzle into the mix in McCoy. JAX off a horrible year, changing QBs and getting healthy. Surprisingly Nick Foles is 3-0 as a season opener starter. If the JAX D can keep the KC O under 27 points, I think there is a total chance at an upset. OBV its hard to take against KC, but JAX at home with some points and a fresh record...watch out!
TEN/CLE: Marriota is back for TEN. Can he finally pull a full, healthy, decent year? If so, they can be a contender. Can they compete with the Buzzing Browns? They had a big turn around last year and added some key compliments this year. I like the browns having an edge here being home but there is a lot of points on this game...maybe too many?
Mid Day Games:
CIN/SEA: I have a feeling this could be a good year for SEA. I do think they are in a tough DIV with the Rams and SF both having good opportunities this year. Even while getting rid of some key Defensive players, I like Pete Carroll to always give his teams a shot. CIN is like the opposite end of the spectrum for me. They somehow always find away to fart on their chances and this year I think they will easily take the bottom spot in their division losing both vs. Pitt and at least one to each CLE and BAL. Easy home side pick here SU.
IND/LAC: Before Luck's departure I would have been all over INDY in this match up. After...I guess Ill lean the chargers. Personally I dislike betting on or against rivers. He always seems to do the opposite of what I need, haha. Should be interesting to see how these teams fair this year.
SF/TB: I dont know how TB is still a favorite here. SF is primed to have a sneaky season IMO. The only thing keeping them from an easy road to the playoffs is being in a DIV with strong competition like the LAR and SEA. But against projected .500 or worse teams like TB? I like them to come out and make a statement. Also, the raiders are leaving soon and the Chargers are always a possible candidate to ship overseas...SoCal needs a team to fall in love with for the next 5 years and I think SF and Garapallo might be the group. I am ride or die with them this season :D
NYG/DAL: Unless the Giants know something about Eli Manning that the rest of the world doesn't know, I am thoroughly disappointed in them. Maybe they are still rebuilding but I feel like they are wasting some of the best years of Barkely's life. I like DAL SU here but once you introduce so many points into it...I think the edge shifts to NY. These to usually play closer games against each other with scores that usually stay below 30. Giving a full TD to a side here is questionable IMO.
DET/ARZ: DET has disappointed in recent years and looks to get back to a winning season. ARZ has a bunch of new faces, including first year QB Murry. A dome game usually makes me favor Stafford. He is a passing yards machine and ARZ Patrick Peterson is out for a suspension. Gotta give the edge to the road vet vs. the fresh face.
PIT/NE: This is going to be a big let down game IMO. Week 12 this would be a fantastic game. The Superbowl champion Pats with newly acquired Brown take on a PIT team that lost its two star O players in Brown and Bell. The signs point to an easy NE win...at home, Cmon. But...for some reason I think this will be much closer than people think with PIT having a chance at an upset here. No stats to back it up, just a gut feeling that NE almost never comes out hot in Sept and the public should be wayyyy over valuing the name.
HOU/NO: Well, well, well. NO is back. How angry are they that they weren't in the Superbowl last year? Enough to put up 35 points a game again and crush it? We shall seeeeee! I dont have a favorite here against the points...SU I think you have to just take the home dome team. But it is a fresh season and who knows if NO used up all their juice last year or what the Texans will do this year.
DEN/OAK: Even with AB, I was going to side with DEN here. It may just be the hype of Hard Knocks, but I think OAK is building something great to take to Vegas. DEN has a spectacular D and they added a QB with some winning experience. OAK has a decent offense forming, I think it will be up to their D to show us if they are ready to be a winning team again. Gonna side with the roadies here.
There you have it! My quick type rundown of week one. (It only took an hour and half, two cups of coffee, three spliffs and a partridge in a pair tree) Honestly, it was rather hard to sit down and type this again this morning after having done it all last night in much greater detail. Like I said, I wont be making many wagers in the early weeks, so I wont post my actual picks this week. Most of them are free bets being used from NJ websites offering reload bonuses.
Some of the bets I am looking at:
I very much am looking forward to this season and I would like to thank everyone for reading, I hope to add to my articles with a weekly podcast for your enjoyment. Check back around Tuesday where I will do a post updating my betting parameters for this season. Good luck everyone!
It’s time to make a Chargers vs. Raiders prediction. The Chargers have probably burned me more than any other team in my betting career, so take the following with a grain of salt. I expect the Chargers to move the ball through the air at will against a struggling pass defense, while I also believe that an improving Los Angeles pass rush will Betting Preview for the Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders NFL Regular Season Week 10 Game on November 7, 2019 Where : RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland When : Thursday, November 7, 2019, 8:20 PM ET The Oakland Raiders (4-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) meet up in Week 10 for an AFC West clash at RingCentral Coliseum on Thursday Night Football.Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. We analyze the Chargers-Raiders odds and sports betting lines within, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup. The Chargers are looking to win against the Raiders for the second time in five weeks. Chargers vs. Raiders Odds. The Chargers are heavily favored in this one by 9.5 points. The over under on this one is 50.5 points, and most of that will be scored by the Chargers. Spread: Chargers -9.5. Total: 50.5. Chargers vs. Raiders Head to Head Noah Davis pegged the Chargers to win the game when he assessed all of the Week 10 NFL lines, and you can see where these two teams stack up in our NFL power rankings page. Those of you interested in reading my Chargers vs. Raiders predictions in this TNF betting preview just need to keep scrolling down!
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders Week 10 NFL Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their Thursday Night Football showdown on November 7, 2019 from Oakland. Sports betting expert Vernon Croy ... LA Chargers at Oakland Raiders - Thursday 11/7/19 - NFL Betting Free Picks & Predictions l Picks & Parlays The tenth week of NFL regular season football is under way and we have you covered. Chargers vs Raiders betting prediction, including odds and picks. Read the full betting preview: https://www.crossingbroad.com/2019/11... New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans Predictions and Odds NFL Picks for Week 16 - Duration: 3:16. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 3,739 views 3:16 Free Thursday Night Football betting picks and predictions for LA Chargers vs Oakland Raiders. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best odds TNF Week 10, break down the game ...